Introducing Playoff Seeding Projections

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As you've probably seen under the Projections tab in the upper right, for the last couple months we've been keeping the odds for each MLS team's chances at making the playoffs and winning the Supporters' Shield. 

Our playoff probabilities come from a combination of 1) where teams are now in the tables, 2) what their remaining schedule is, and 3) how good our model thinks they are. It's the same model that produces the Power Rankings, but the key difference is that here we take each team's current standing and remaining schedule into account.

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Weekend Kick-Off: Round 29

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This week we inch closer to what the playoffs might look like coming November. Though it's not that we don't already know what the picture looks like. I mean, even going by last week's odds, I think we all were sitting in the same situation we were back in 6th grade watching 'Where In The World Is Carmen Sandiego?' as they reveal the third piece of the puzzle and we're all pretending as if that wasn't the Eiffel Tower in the background… “guess we need one last piece, huh!”.

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USMNT 1 - Brazil 4: USA GetS Waxed

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If you were to read through the headlines this morning, though I'm not sure I'd advise doing that, you'll likely find a good share of articles that talk about the United States' inability to keep the ball or build possession to penetrate Brazil's defense and create goal scoring chances. Others will mention a lack a terse focus for a back four that surrendered multiple goals that should probably have never happened. The rest will consist of sharp lashings that end with the inevitable and deserved questioning of leadership within the hierarchy of US soccer.

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The luckiest and unluckiest teams in MLS

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The topic of luck is never too far away from soccer analysis. A team peppers its opponent with 20 shots in a game but scores just one goal, while the opponent manages two goals from just six shots. We’d be prone to call the losing team unlucky because it appears they dominated the game, but the reality is the losing team was just on the wrong side of a probability distribution curve for goals scored. Call it unlucky, or just call it an unlikely but possible outcome.

Consider the binomial distribution estimate of goals scored for the Philadelphia Union and LA Galaxy this year. The binomial distribution is created using the teams' actual finishing rates and shots attempted per game.  

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August PScore Update: LEGOs, True Detective and the Bible

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What does the LEGO Movie, HBO’s True Detective and the Bible’s Book of Ecclesiastes have in common?  Everything. The world is obsessed with condensing this chaotic world into mid-afternoon snacks and we’ve reached the logical end of summarizing everything. There is the famous LEGO Movie song “Everything is Awesome” - which is of course wildly optimistic. There is True Detective’s infamous and terrible line in episode 5 where a prostitute claimed that “Everything is F*cking” - which is wildly disturbing and pessimistic. And there is the wisdom of King Solomon, who in the Bible’s Book of Ecclesiastes, said that “Everything is meaningless, a chasing after the wind.” According to Hollywood we now know that Stephen Hawking developed The Theory of Everything and there’s the classic sports diehard “winning is everything.” It sounds like everything is being reduced to well, everything. 

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Presenting Expected Goals by Game

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If you migrate over to the xGoals 3.0 tab, you can now find a "By game" option, complete with some team-level expected goals stats from each game this season.

Using our fun sorting capabilities, we might observe that three of the top six expected goal differential (xGD) advantages for home teams have been produced by the New York Red Bulls, and last week's drubbing of D.C. United was only New York's third-best showing of those three--at least, in terms of xGD. Of the top-20 xGD performances by home teams, the home team has won 19 of them and tied one. 

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How Valuable Are MLS Teams Compared To Other U.S. Leagues?

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You don’t need actual profits to create a lot of financial value. Just ask Twitter. The potential to generate profit in the future is plenty enough for investors. Because of this paradigm, MLS Commissioner Don Garber repeatedly insults our intelligence when he emphasizes the league is losing money. And now Forbes, in so few numbers, agrees. According to Forbes, the league is generating negative EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) but the value of MLS franchises has increased by 50% over the last two years. Forbes doesn’t offer much detail, but perhaps looking at other sports projections can help put the numbers in context.

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Shot Limiting: Bringing the heat (maps)

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Earlier this year, I decided the world needed a 30 page paper on shot limiting in MLS. Of course, the powers that be found this to be a tad self indulgent, and more accurately, sad that I had the time to do such a thing. They ended up talking me down to a slightly more readable 20 pages, which can be read here.

But my art will not be compromised, gosh darnit! There is still so much to be learned about this topic, and, more to the point, my obsession hadn’t been quenched. Several questions were raised within the paper that I simply didn’t have the necessary data to explore.

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Goalkeepers: Under Attack!

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There’s an interesting movement happening in MLS with officiating towards goalkeeping. Wherever you stand on the quality of MLS referees, you can’t argue that they’re quick to call penalties, whether it’s on a defender or a goalkeeper. Tim Froh captured a good quote from an international player on the differences between playing in MLS versus playing back home in Argentina. So let’s take a look at what’s happening in MLS and where it could be going.

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Weekend Kickoff: Round 23

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Last week, I talked about the tiers of MLS and teams that are going to be the ones to watch as we close out this season. Since there is no relegation (and that is not a statement that implies I'm either for or against it), wading through the rest of the season as a Chicago Fire or Colorado Rapids supporter could be a burdensome and/or underwhelming task. That said, there are a few things to watch for from MLS as a whole as we race towards the end of the season.

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