The Goals Sprayin’, With Or Without You: Jermaine Jones and The Problem With “Points Added” in Soccer

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Here’s the deal. Jermaine Jones is a 34 year old United States international midfielder, whose contract with the New England Revolution expired at the end of the 2015 season. He is suspended for six games in the 2016 MLS season after assaulting a referee (see below), a ban that carries over into any league he eventually moves to.

According to Jones, the Revolution have made him an offer for the 2016 season, but it’s “less than 20%” of his salary from last season - which was $3,052,500 (meaning the offer by the Revolution is  less than $600,000). For a 34 year old player who is only eligible for 28 to 34 games and has had a history of groin injuries recently - that’s still a lot of money.

So what’s the fuss all about? Well Jones posted the following picture on Instagram recently (that has since been removed):

 

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2015 in MLS Goalkeepers, and looking ahead to 2016

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2015 was an up and down year for MLS goalkeeping. We had some surprise seasons from Stefan Frei, Tyler Deric, and David Ousted, all of which had question marks going into 2015 but clearly did work during the offseason to prepare themselves for the year. Now moving forward, each club’s fan base is excited for their goalkeeper and is probably calling them “one of the best in the league”. Jesse Gonzalez matched the young blood theme in Dallas and gave a great performance against Seattle that went into penalties. David Bingham earned praise for finally taking over the starting role in San Jose and Old Man Saunders led the league in saves with New York City. Even Brek Shea notched himself a great save for the season.

Tim Melia returned from the abyss to start for Sporting Kansas City and won perhaps the most ambiguous MLS award: Comeback Player of the Year. But most notably, Luis Robles won Goalkeeper of the Year after winning the Supporters’ Shield with New York Red Bulls. He was rewarded with a USMNT call up and hopes to add on to his single cap with the upcoming friendlies.

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Patrick Nyarko And Playing the Game: Redux

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Last year, I wrote about Patrick Nyarko and his contract extension with the Chicago Fire. Fast forward through a rough 2015 campaign and while I wasn't necessarily wrong about the deal, as Nyarko reached more minutes than I had expected and ended up being was a useful option off the bench, the Chicago Fire ended up on the lesser side of the deal paying him more than what he was worth in 2015. That was largely due to injuries that sidelined him the first half of the season, one of the primary reasons I remained rather gloomy concerning the size of the contract.

Nyarko is now "supposedly" headed to DC after requesting to leave the windy city and despite his limited time on the pitch last season there are performance indicators that United could be set to inherent a solid “buy low” candidate should a trade be worked out.

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A Less Hot Take Approach To Evaluating MLS Centerbacks

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It’s fun every once in a while to throw something out that you don’t really check before you press “tweet.” I did that a couple of days ago with a quick "hot take" on #Top10MLSCenterbacks.

This was something I did haphazardly after eyeballing a trio of stats (defensive actions, percentage of aerial battles (%AB) won and fouls committed). It wasn't thoroughly thought trough and I didn't consider many other important factors. That said, I believe there was something positive gained through the experience.

Obviously this list doesn’t encompass or order the players that we've come to think about when we talk MLS's best centerbacks. Its commonly accepted that Kendal Waston and Laurent Ciman are two of the very best centerbacks in the league with Matt Hedges and (recently departed) Omar Gonzalez close behind.

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The 2011 Galaxy: Lucky, Good, or Both?

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The 2011 LA Galaxy often gets credit for being the greatest Galaxy team of all time, and it’s certainly understandable why. They won the cup. They won the shield, and their ability to put games on defensive lockdown was legendary. 

23. That’s how many games the LA Galaxy were involved in in 2011 where the final point outcome was decided by a single goal. This means single goal wins, single goal losses and ties. That’s 68% of the entire season. Of those 23 games, the LA Galaxy won 12, tied 10 and lost only 1, acquiring 46 of the possible 69 points up for grabs. They couldn’t have been more clutch, which is why many (wrong) people consider them greater than the 2014 LA Galaxy team which was statistically superior in virtually every facet. The 2011 LA Galaxy simply took care of business.  

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Taking A Chance in MLS Roster Construction

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This off-season is a bit different for MLS fans as we have a sort of free-agency that enables a bit of extra chaos. The players now have a bit of freedom to move around the league and more influence in where they live and with whom the ply their craft. Most of us have already taken to the newly minted free-agent list and picked out their favorite Christmas present, be it Alan Gordon, Mike Magee, Justin Mapp or even Ricardo Clark or Drew Moor.

And with free-agency, it's inevitable that some club is probably going to give Nathan Sturgis another contract and another 1,000 or so minutes despite portraying the definition of a replacement level production. This isn't a personal attack against Sturgis, I'm sure he's a fine locker room guy and he sure does hustle a lot. These are tangible things to coaches and front office types.

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MLS Cup Goalkeepers Review and Yearly Awards

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Well it wasn’t Steve Clark’s best game. The first minute disaster will be the lasting memory for all Crew fans. Even when Columbus scored to make it 2-1 early in the game, it still felt like Columbus was trying to recover from an insurmountable debt. The gaffe was replayed at least twenty times over the duration of the broadcast. However Clark was far from the worst problem on the field. Anyone that wants to put the loss on Clark’s shoulders is ignoring the other 89 minutes of the game.

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Darlington Nagbe And The Very Good Season

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A couple of weeks ago, while listening to Major League Soccer Soccer dot com's very own podcast, Extra Time Radio, Alexi Lalas provided some insight to the emergence Darlington Nagbe. The newly-minted US International and always-minted Portland starlet's blossoming can simply be chalked up to "more touches." It's not that I disagree with that synopsis, but I feel that is too simplistic.

Nagbe has been excellent for years. We've seen him time after time change matches with moments that are breathtaking. His biggest problem has always been consistency, going multiple matches without directly being the influence that should be expected from his talent. Of course, "consistency" is just sports fans' code word for "he's not good enough often enough."

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MLS Cup 2015: Where the goals come from

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The purpose of this post is to investigate the origin of regular season goals conceded and scored for both teams. I have aggregated the Portland Timbers and Columbus Crew’s goal locations in order to shed some light on their defensive and offensive strengths. 

The Portland Timbers are one of the best defensive teams in the league with 39 goals conceded and five goals conceded in the playoffs. Conversely, the Columbus Crew are one of the best offensive teams in the league with fearsome firepower in the likes of Kei Kamara. They conceded 52 regular season goals and three more in the playoffs. 

When looking at the ratio of goals scored to goals conceded, Columbus Crew’s attacking strengths compensated for their propensity for leaking goals with a 1.096 ratio. The Portland Timbers finished with a regular season ratio of 1.051. 

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Model Projections: Crew Favored to Win MLS Cup 2015

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As you probably know, after each playoff game we've been projecting the remainder of the MLS Playoffs 50,000 times using our expected goals model. Yesterday we did it for the last time in 2015. The odds for both Portland and Columbus are listed to the right.

There are plenty of limitations to our model - it doesn't account for injuries, it doesn't care about formations (Nagbe in the single pivot, anyone?), and we still can't predict weather patterns - but on the whole it has been pretty accurate.

Given those limitations, to some 65% odds for Columbus may seem high, and they are certainly pretty favorable odds in a game pundits are calling a fairly even matchup. Consider that the Crew had the 4th highest expected goals against (xGA) this season,  which was worse than Chicago, Orlando, and Philadelphia, and you may be even more confused.

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