The Elusive Advanced Defensive Metric

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The Elusive Advanced Defensive Metric

It all started with Micheal Azira.

At the conclusion of the 2017 MLS season, I sifted through the wreckage of the Colorado Rapids awful season, player by player, to see what could be learned. Who, among these players was actually a high-quality soccer player? Who should the team retain for next year? Who should be jettisoned? Why? How can I know the difference? And, most importantly for readers of a data-obsessive website like American Soccer Analysis, can I find a credible way of answering those questions using advanced metrics?

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How Every Goalkeeper Fared in 2017

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By Luke Stanke (@lukestanke)

Lowered Expectations: Week Four

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Lowered Expectations: Week Four

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, the week four edition! Each week we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open play shot attempts that did not quite live up to expectations. We’ll take each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process that led to these chances.

#5 - Mason Toye, Minnesota United, 84th minute, 0.225 expected goals
Assisted by: Ethan Finlay (through ball)
Number of passes in possession: 7

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Updated Game-by-game Expected Goals

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Updated Game-by-game Expected Goals

Starting today, if you go to our xG by Game page (also listed at the bottom of this post), you'll notice that there are now two expected goals totals for each team. That's because we have multiple xG models, and they give different results. Crazy, we know. One is called the team expected goals model, and the other the player expected goals model. There are only two simple differences between these models, but they are significant. 

  1. Penalty kicks are worth less in the team model. 
  2. Sequential shots get their value diminished in the team model.
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LAFC's Hot Start and Home (Un)Sweet Home?

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LAFC's Hot Start and Home (Un)Sweet Home?

The 2018 MLS season is well under way and the biggest story so far has been the hot start by expansion side LAFC. Two road games, two road victories. But even for an expansion team, none of that should be too surprising given Bob Bradley is in charge. 

Bradley has his faults and deficiencies as a head coach, but one thing that’s certainly a hallmark trait of a Bob Bradley team is preparation. Not everything executes as planned, nor are they always the most pleasing to the eye, but Bradley’s teams are always well prepared for the task at hand. 

Their season opening 1-0 victory in Seattle felt more like a fluke with Seattle putting up 22 shots to LAFC’s meager five. It was easy to write them off as lucky in their first MLS game, and the shot charts reflect that.

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MLS PScore Update: Why tactics should be tied to a team's budget

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MLS PScore Update: Why tactics should be tied to a team's budget

Those of you that have been hanging around American Soccer Analysis for a while might recall a metric that measures a team’s tactical proactivity. Despite efforts to come up with something catchier, it’s been dubbed “PScore”, and the goal is to develop a simple way to examine the aggressiveness of teams from both an offensive and defensive point of view. In essence it separates the bunker and counter teams from the Liverpool-esque possession oriented teams, and also calls out the teams with no discernible identity.

PScore has undergone many tweaks over the years but now it’s been scored consistently for MLS covering the last three seasons. The following is a look at how the league is shifting tactically at a macro level and also how specific teams have been evolving over the years. 

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Roster Consistency in MLS: How much does it actually matter?

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Roster Consistency in MLS: How much does it actually matter?

Recently, while trying to put a finger on what exactly happened with FC Dallas last season, “lack of squad consistency” was mentioned as a reason for their remarkable plummet down the table. This made me wonder both how much their roster actually changed from week-to-week and how much week-to-week rotation is the right amount. 

The following is my initial exploration into roster consistency.

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Evaluating the MLS International Signings and why NYCFC were the victors

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Evaluating the MLS International Signings and why NYCFC were the victors

Major League Soccer just completed a busy offseason with record amounts of money at the disposal of the owners. Roughly 80 players were brought in from outside professional leagues while approximately 50 players departed for those same leagues. That’s roughly the gap created by the addition of LAFC. The assumption is that the league as a whole is doing good business and is improving the league with their new funds, but it’s difficult to measure whether or not that assumption is justified.

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