Where Goals Come From: Playing the Killer Final Ball

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Where Goals Come From: Playing the Killer Final Ball

This is the third article of Season Two and tenth overall article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

In our last article, we discussed how Expected Goals (xG) helps us evaluate the quality of the shots that a team takes and concedes. That evaluation can happen with individual shots, with a full game, several games (looking at trends), and over the course of a season. As we know from Season One of this series, the type of shot a player gives us a good indication of the typical Goal Conversion Rate (GCR), starting with the very effective shots from Through balls and Cutbacks. We have twelve types of shots in total in our framework, including penalty shots, across five different categories.

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How much would it cost to buy the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup?

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How much would it cost to buy the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup?

Let’s pretend that we could buy the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup from the US Soccer Federation. It would not cost all that much, and in a sports universe where owners usually play the villains, we could be the heroes. A new owner would give life to a neglected tournament and return open soccer to the American consciousness.

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We're Gonna Celebrate and Have a Good Time

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We're Gonna Celebrate and Have a Good Time

Tracking data is the next frontier in soccer analytics. Now that we have access to the location of every player on the field updated 25 times per second, we can measure things like off-ball runs and defensive positioning that were mostly invisible when using only event data. Tracking data holds the potential to unlock the game’s secrets. This article is not going to solve soccer. It is going to solve something arguably even more important: who the best teammates are based on their goal celebrations.

When Metrica released their first few games of anonymized tracking data over a year ago, I first dreamed of using tracking data to revolutionize how we look at goal celebrations. However, with just a handful of games available, and unknown players and teams, this dream would have to wait. But now, thanks to Major League Soccer and Second Spectrum, American Soccer Analysis has access to tracking data from the last couple of years of MLS play and the dream of measuring player celebrations can now be realized.

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Where Goals Come From: Using past goals to create future goals

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Where Goals Come From: Using past goals to create future goals

The outline for this article is going to be:

  • If you’ve heard about or looked at xG in the past but either 1) didn't see its utility or 2) didn't know how to make it useful, we want to help with these scenarios in this article and upcoming articles.

  • xG is always improving, so regardless of what you saw or read about a few years ago, it is much better now at evaluating individual shots because of better and more data.

  • Not all xG values from various sources are equal because there is not equal access to the data points and data volume, and because data providers, clubs, and analysts have varying ideas on how to value shots and optimize their models.

  • There are other stats and metrics that are not talked about as much as xG but can also be very useful in addition to or along with xG. Some may be better suited to your audience.

  • xG helps us answer the quality question about a shot, and we'll be talking about improving shot quality utilizing xG and other tools throughout this season. Without xG, shot quality becomes highly subjective and experiential.

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We Have A New Win Probability Model

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We Have A New Win Probability Model

Across recent weeks, we’ve set out to improve the performance of our in-game win probability model, while:

  1. starting to take each team’s strength into account, based on its performance in prior games; and

  2. introducing more fluctuation between goal-scoring events, to better reflect teams’ chance creation throughout the game.

In this article, we’ll cover our methods for accomplishing those goals, how we plan to use this new and improved model, and how deconstructing that model can teach us more about the conditions under which goal-scoring events occur.

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Where Goals Come From: What It Takes For Teams To Be Elite

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Where Goals Come From: What It Takes For Teams To Be Elite

This is the first article of Season Two and ninth overall article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

Season Two Introduction

In the eight articles of Season One of the Where Goals Come From project we demonstrated how “progressive pass” goals make up 40% of the goals scored in professional soccer.

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Valuing goalkeepers with goals added

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Valuing goalkeepers with goals added

We have updated our goals added (g+) methodology to produce g+ components for goal keepers. You can find these new metrics on the Goals Added window in the app under the Goalkeepers tab (MLS, NWSL). Up to this point, we had not published g+ metrics for goal keepers. We recognize that goalkeepers perform many unique tasks on the field, and the first version of our expected possession value models and g+ framework missed a lot of those. Below I’ll explain the specific keeper g+ components and what they try to measure, share a few examples, and then wrap up with some nitty gritty details.

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NWSL Biweekly Article #2 - Goals Added (g+)'s Favorite Player

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NWSL Biweekly Article #2 - Goals Added (g+)'s Favorite Player

This is the second of a series of biweekly articles on American Soccer Analysis analyzing interesting tidbits across the season - both at a team and individual level. As the season continues to heat up, these articles will come at all angles of the game: tactical information, fascinating data quirks, and as well just basic match reports. The NWSL, as is the case with American soccer across the board, is a wild ride - hopefully this series will provide everyone with things to keep an eye on throughout the year!

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Using Goals Added (g+) to Assess Dollar Value

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Using Goals Added (g+) to Assess Dollar Value

One of the most interesting aspects of MLS when compared to many other popular soccer leagues in the world is that MLS operates under a salary cap. From a roster-building perspective, this has a tremendous impact on how players are valued. Considering the following thought experiment. Let’s say that we have two players who play the same position, have the same age and injury history, and have the exact skill level. For all intents and purposes, they are the same player. Now, let’s say that Player A has a much better agent than Player B and manages to get a contract with a team for 4 times the amount of money as player B.

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