Time For A Change

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Warning: This is an atypical piece from us. It's purely an opinion piece. There are no numbers or graphs below. If you're looking for unbiased and hot-take free writing, skip this one. We'll be back to our normal analytics stuff shortly.

Inspired by this piece over at LA Galaxy Confidential from our own Sean Steffen, and surprised at how easy it was to find his email address online, I set out to write a short email to the president of the United States Soccer Federation, Sunil Gulati, on why it's time for Jurgen Klinsmann to be fired as head coach.

It soon turned into something of an existential personal release and awakening on the state of the USMNT, and more for me than for him. At the encouragement of my fellow ASA writers, I'm posting it here. Feel free to send me your own thoughts (or tell me how wrong I am) on twitter.

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September PScore Update: Are the Red Bulls the Arsenal of MLS?

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This month’s Proactivity Score (PScore) post takes a giant leap toward reaching the initial promise of the metric, which is to describe numerically how a team plays tactically. The original vision was to look at teams across two dimensions – how high up the pitch do they press the opposing team and how direct or indirect are they with their passing. Indirect passing teams, for example, are primarily concerned with maintaining possession and use shorter passes and more backwards passes in order to do so. Direct teams are trying to get up the pitch as quickly as possible. The theory is that direct teams will play their defensive block lower while possession oriented teams like Barcelona or Arsenal will press higher up the pitch. 

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Weekend Kick-off Round 31: The ASA awards

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The theme or narrative I've pushed, and really most of us over the last few week, has surrounded the end of the season. We've talked about the playoffs probabilities, Supporter Shield finalists, MLS Cup winners and in the end, possible CCL bids. But as we talk about the end of the season we've neglected to mention much concerning the individual accomplishments or hardware that might be awarded after the season. I'm not talking about the 'Landon Donovan MVP trophy or whomever the new comber of the year award is given. Those are all stupid.

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When should a team park the bus? (Abridged)

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"Tottenham might as well have put the team bus in front of their goal," said Jose Mourinho in 2004 following a draw between his Chelsea club and the Spurs. Although he would later say the phrase was one typically used in Portugal, Mourinho was credited with coining the phrase 'parking the bus,' which described a team that was sitting the whole team behind the ball in an effort to block the goal. It's less frequent for team to play a full 90 minutes that way, but often teams with a lead will change tactics late in the game and park the bus in an effort to ensure victory. To do this they move their line of defensive pressure back toward the goal, committing more players to defense. The other team is allowed more possession of the ball but the bet is they'll have a lower chance of actually scoring the equalizer. 

During this year’s FA Cup Final, Arsenal took a 1-0 lead over Aston Villa into halftime. They had thoroughly dominated the game and had taken eight shots to Aston Villa’s one. In that case, the obvious tactical choice was to change nothing at all. Arsenal logically kept up the pressure just as they did in the first half, added three more goals and finished with a shot advantage of sixteen to two.

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When Should A Team Park the Bus?

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"Tottenham might as well have put the team bus in front of their goal," said Jose Mourinho in 2004 following a draw between his Chelsea club and the Spurs. Although he would later say the phrase was one typically used in Portugal, Mourinho was credited with coining the phrase 'parking the bus,' which described a team that was sitting the whole team behind the ball in an effort to block the goal.  It's less frequent for team to play a full 90 minutes that way, but often teams with a lead will change tactics late in the game and park the bus in an effort to ensure victory. To do this they move their line of defensive pressure back toward the goal, committing more players to defense. The other team is allowed more possession of the ball but the bet is they'll have a lower chance of actually scoring the equalizer. 

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Weekend Kick-Off: Round 30

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By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

September comes and as we often do as supporters we either start looking forward towards the playoffs or the next season. The reality is that for eight clubs the season is about to be over and even four playoff clubs that get a mere roll in the hay before being bounced have very little season left.

So let's focus on the big narrative: The MLS Cup. It's about to get real and someone is going to earn some hardware and a bid to CONCACAF Champions League next season. That also comes with some nice little allocation monies attached to it. Not to mention the star over their crest and all the bragging rights that come with adding such prestige to your club.

Additionally, there is more than just one single CCL Bid and hardware to pass out. The US Open Cup final is less than a week away. The epic conclusion to the four month tournament that started back on the 16th of June for Major League Soccer clubs. There is a lot to say in regards to this final so that's probably as good of a jumping off point as any...

Lamar Hunt US Open Cup

We're a little under a week away from what is going to be another US Open Cup final match between a David and Goliath. Only this time we're not sitting in the Philistine's back yard and instead have taken this game directly to the babbling brook. Philadelphia play host once more to the favorite and commonly thought heir to the Cup, Sporting KC.

We have been shown that within one-off matches, anything can happen. Sometimes the pre-written narrative is written and shown to be accurate. Other times the worst team that has ever played walks into one of the toughest fortressever constructed and conquers despite all odds.

Philadelphia isn't as bad as most people envision them. They've got play makers, scorers, ball winners and on ocassion some defenders too. The theme to begin the season often surrounded them being unlucky until it happened so frequently it began to just be chalked up to a combination of mismanagement, apathy and ineptitude.

The Union's defense, while sometimes not awful, is often what kept them from really taking that step of becoming a playoff team. Ranking 6th in expected goals for but only 14th in expected goals against. But the reality is that it's not that simple. The same could be said with their attack.

The regression of Andrew Wenger from his form last year as one of the best wide men at season's end to… well, whatever it is he is now has been ugly. He might actually be the embodiment of disappointment in relation to his team and personal performance this season.

Sporting Kansas City isn't really all that much different from Philadelphia. Sure, they'll make the playoffs, but that's a given considering what they've accomplished the last few year. A team that has perpetually sat towards the top of our Power Rankings and has somehow been on the cusp of a Western Conference playoff team and something short of competing for the Supporters' Shield.

Sporting Kansas City obviously has aspirations for something more than a middle tier club that has great players and sees the playoffs. They want hardware and they've done a heck of a job trying to put the best foot foward to position themselves for those opportunities through the season.

Much of the talk with their struggles has surrounded the lack of an ability to control the middle of the park with Roger Espinoza out of action and lacking a suitable replacement option. This has been the theme around Sporting Park pretty much this season. As they've had revolving line-ups and been forced to overcome more than just a few set backs.

- MLS Cup: Talking about the Elite Club

There are probably as many as eight clubs that are legitimate contenders for the MLS Cup this coming fall. You have the usual suspects between Seattle and LA. But they've been vulnerable and shown weaknesses that are begging to be exposed.

The reality is that this season is probably bound to be owed to someone outside of the given. New England and Columbus are both very, very good squads that have depth and talent that are going to put on some performances come playoff time. Likewise, as mentioned above, Sporting Kansas City is beloved by our metrics once more for their ability to exploit opportunities and limit their opponents' big chances. FC Dallas is living right in the advanced stage and performance that our metric says they should. The Hoops have big dreams and this just might be a season they finally get there.

That being said, for me there are two clubs that aren't being talked about enough going into the last month of the season.

2) Toronto FC

Yes, I get it. They've been bad. Their defense has been an eye sore at times and Jozy Altidore, someone they had hoped they could hang this season upon, has been all over the map. It's often impossible to figure out which one of him is going to show up each game and what type of quality you're going to get.

Additionally, the Reds feature one of a midfielder often touted as possibly the best ever produced by the United States in Michael Bradley. Still he's somehow left one of Italy's best teams and become somewhat disappointing in this his second season. Bradley is an impact level talent that again has been left wanting in performance.

That being said Giovinco has been everything and twice that. The Atomic Ant has shown the ability to create big plays and when needed be the big play all on his own. The fact that he has an outside chance to break our xG+xA (or total expected goals created) in a single season is crazy and speaks the level of his talent.

Currently Giovinco sits sixth on our all-time single season boards for most xG+xA. Behind a couple Robbie Keane seasons (2012, 2014) , Mike Magee, Bradley Wright-Phillips and Chris Wondolowski's amazing 27 goal season that took him to the top with 26.37 xG+xA contributed to his team in 2012.

Toronto has been winning all year on the back of Giovinco's accomplishment and though rare in soccer we've seen how a single players can turn the scales of a battle and in doing so win a war like this but it's not going to be easy. Can Gio do it for Toronto and lead them to a chance for a Cup?

1) New York Red Bulls

Red Bulls have a quality line-up from head right down to those guys coming off the bench… which would be their implied toes. Their ability to show up in Portland and come out victorious has just as much to do with that bench and roster constructed by Jesse Marsch and Ali Curtis as it does with Portland consuming itself with self destruction right before the playoffs.

Could Bradley Wright-Phillips produce the same numbers without Henry? CHECK.

Would Sascha Kljestan be worth the money paid? CHECK.

Will Jesse Marsch figure out a way to deploy all his key players in a manner that is productive? CHECK.

While the club is maybe a few nickles short of a full dollar (every club is) it's been a marvelous season and it speaks to the quality that the organization has worked to either develop, acquire or keep.

Call me crazy, and a few people have done it, but BWP is the best all around striker in MLS right now. You can point to Keane, Didier Drogba, Obafemi Martins or even Kai Kamara, but I'll take BWP and walk. Which is funny because I think he's going to walk away with hardware from New York and there is a good chance that he might just inspire the club to achieve not just the MLS Cup but the Supporters' Shield as well.

Obvious omission:

I know that I did not mention Vancouver and while I don't have to explain myself, this has all been rather opinionated and subjective, I do think it's fair to make note of the fact I glossed over an obvious leader in the Supporter Shield race. Yes, they have a stout defensive presence. Yes, they have some tremendous scoring potential.

There just is something in the numbers that has fully lead me to not believe that they're a team that can pull off an MLS Cup. Again, yes, subjective. Their defense is without a doubt the best in the league but their team can come up missing on the attack at times and considering the problems with health and consistent performances, I'm gun shy on saying they can compete.

Don't take this as a “they won't” but I'm just saying I don't feel like they're a team that I would consider elite at this time. Maybe that's not fair. Whatever… you stay up and write this thing until one AM.

Another obvious omissions:

I'm not convinced Bill Hamid can stop enough shots to win an MLS Cup for DC United. They're like the East coast version of Vancouver in my mind… actually that isn't a bad comparison. Not 100% accurate but not bad.

Weekend Game Schedule:

Friday -
Orlando City SC (-0.14 xGD @ New York Red Bulls ( .045 xGD), 7PM

Saturday -
Chicago Fire ( -0.01 xGD) @ Toronto FC ( 0.17 xGD), 2PM
DC United ( -0.40 xGD) @ Montreal Impact ( 0.02 xGD), 5PM
Portland Timbers FC (0.11 xGD) @ Columbus Crew SC ( xGD), 7:30PM
Philadelphia Union ( 0.05 xGD) @ New England Revolution ( 0.08 xGD), 7:30PM
Colorado Rapids ( -0.04 xGD) @ Houston Dynamo ( -0.03 xGD), 8:30PM
New York City FC ( -0.64 xGD) @ Vancouver Whitecaps ( 0.12 xGD),

Sunday -
Seattle Sounders FC ( 0.05 xGD) @ Sporting KC ( 0.20 xGD)
Real Salt Lake ( -0.41 xGD) @ San Jose Earthquakes ( 0.02 xGD)
Dallas FC ( 0.00 xGD) @ LA Galaxy (0.10 xGD)

Guzan v Howard: Battle of the Balds

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Classic USMNT. While the rest of our team is struggling to keep its head above water, we’re overflowing with bald talent at goalkeeper. It’s one position we haven’t had a worry about since before Jimmy Douglas’ first World Cup shutout in 1930 and it doesn’t look like it’s going to change any time soon. Brad Guzan and Tim Howard fill the depth chart for the Americans and the question of “Who should start?” is as unanswered as a year ago.

Unlike Kasey Keller and Brad Friedel Guzan and Howard seem to actually enjoy playing with each other. There’s nothing wrong with love and even though we’re all glad the animosity between the goalkeepers isn’t DEFCON 5, we’re still not sure who should be in net. Klinsmann has stated multiple times that Guzan is his number one moving forward but after a four goal outing against Brazil for Guzan, Howard may have found his foot in the door.

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Introducing Playoff Seeding Projections

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As you've probably seen under the Projections tab in the upper right, for the last couple months we've been keeping the odds for each MLS team's chances at making the playoffs and winning the Supporters' Shield. 

Our playoff probabilities come from a combination of 1) where teams are now in the tables, 2) what their remaining schedule is, and 3) how good our model thinks they are. It's the same model that produces the Power Rankings, but the key difference is that here we take each team's current standing and remaining schedule into account.

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Weekend Kick-Off: Round 29

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This week we inch closer to what the playoffs might look like coming November. Though it's not that we don't already know what the picture looks like. I mean, even going by last week's odds, I think we all were sitting in the same situation we were back in 6th grade watching 'Where In The World Is Carmen Sandiego?' as they reveal the third piece of the puzzle and we're all pretending as if that wasn't the Eiffel Tower in the background… “guess we need one last piece, huh!”.

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USMNT 1 - Brazil 4: USA GetS Waxed

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If you were to read through the headlines this morning, though I'm not sure I'd advise doing that, you'll likely find a good share of articles that talk about the United States' inability to keep the ball or build possession to penetrate Brazil's defense and create goal scoring chances. Others will mention a lack a terse focus for a back four that surrendered multiple goals that should probably have never happened. The rest will consist of sharp lashings that end with the inevitable and deserved questioning of leadership within the hierarchy of US soccer.

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