2020 Season Preview: Portland Timbers
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Prathamesh Mahankal (@pratham1695) and Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)
Over the last two years, Giovanni Savarese has led the Timbers to overachieve in his first year as coach and underachieve in his second. Through this, Savarese has struggled to find his best formation, play in his preferred style, and make the team his own. In his third season at the helm it looks like he may finally have a team of players that is built to fit his desired methods and approach.
2019 In Review
At the start of the 2019 season Portland was in the process of expanding its stadium, which meant they began with 12 consecutive road games and ended with 11 of their final 12 games at home. MLS teams average fewer than one point per game when on the road, so it was no surprise the Timbers could not manage to win any of their first six away games (three times losing by a three-goal margin, and ending up with a GD of -11 over the six games!). Things started improving in the next three games, where a hat trick of wins against Columbus, Toronto, and Real Salt Lake brought them some cheer. They struggled again in the next few games but managed to end their 12 consecutive away game streak with a 3-1 win over Philadelphia.
Finally, after a series of away games, they came back to their home turf, Providence Park, where the familiar home crowd force started chanting their name. Their homecoming, however, was blighted by a close 3-2 defeat at the hands of Los Angeles FC. But what followed that was a seven-game unbeaten home streak, which brought them back into the contention for a playoff bye. It looked like they could recreate their 2018 season 15-game unbeaten streak until Atlanta FC, who also took beat them in the 2018 MLS Cup, came in and broke their streak. In the end, the Timbers ended up winning only eight and losing five of their 17 home games. After fans and the league were ready to see them shoot up the table in the 2nd half of the season, Portland instead responded with their worst home record of the last three years (they won 11 home games in 2018, 11 in 2017 and 12 in 2016). The Timbers have historically been strong at Providence Park, so these home defeats came as a surprise to many. The Timbers Army will be hoping that this dip in home form was just a one-season thing and that they will again reach double figures in home wins in 2020.
After a disastrous start to the season, Portland did recover briefly but kept losing games at regular intervals, with surprise defeats at home. They ended the campaign on a bad note, managing to win only one of their last six games, which in the end cost them a much higher spot in the league table (they ended four points out from the third seed), and thus had to face Real Salt Lake in the playoffs, where they were outmatched, but only beaten by an 87th-minute goal from Jefferson Savarino. And dare I forget, this was the same game where Savarese decided to bench Diego Valeri, while Andy Polo got the start!
We’ll never know if Valeri’s playoff benching was related, but at the end of the season it became clear that his contract negotiations weren’t going great. The club wanted to free up a DP slot by keeping him as a TAM player while Diego still wanted to be a DP. The fans finally heaved a collective sigh of relief when the skipper signed a new contract last month, and it was confirmed that the on field leadership is in good hands for the upcoming season.
If the drama with Valeri’s contract wasn’t enough, after the season came one of the more unusual storylines of the year. After a stellar start (six goals in his first six games) DP midseason signing Brian Fernandez mysteriously missed some late season practices and played sparingly down the stretch. Finally, in the offseason the team terminated his contract, citing substance abuse issues. Fernandez’s departure meant that the club was forced to look for another striker in the offseason window, along with a right-winger.
Roster Changes
Key additions: Yimmi Chara (MF), Jaroslaw Niezgoda (FW), Felipe Mora (FW) Dario Zuparic (CD)
Key departures: Brian Fernandez (FW), Zarek Valentin (DF)
2020 Roster Outlook
Goalkeeping
Jeff Attinella began 2019 as the starter, but after he went down for the season Steve Clark more than capably stepped into the starting role. Clark ended up with a G-xG of -8.55 (he stopped almost nine goals more than expected), which was the second-best in the league, and earned him a new contract and a pay raise in the offseason.
Make your own plots by clicking the "scatter plots” tab on any of our xG table pages.
Defense
On the left-hand side of the defensive line, Jorge Villafaña has firmly set his claim on the left-back spot since his return to the Timbers in 2018. He is a solid defender who loves to get forward and send in crosses with his juicy left foot, but is sometimes a defensive liability on set pieces. Covering him for the left-back spot will be 21-year-old American Marco Farfan, who only started three games in 2019.
The right-hand side of the defense was the Timbers’ weak link early in 2018. To solve this issue. Timbers brought Jorge Moreira from River Plate (where he hadn’t played much in the last few seasons after coming back from an injury). Moreira played over 2000 minutes, and firmly established himself as one of the best fullbacks in MLS. The chart below is probably the most posted image in ASA history, but it speaks for itself:
At center back, Larrys Mabiala has proven himself for over three years now, especially in the air. He is expected to anchor the defense again in 2020. Partnering him at CB will be Dario Zuparic. The Croatian most recently spent three seasons with Rijeka, where he started 71 games from 2016 to 2019, although only managing 18 starts in his last season. Zuparic has looked somewhat lost in preseason (though to be fair, so has the rest of the defense) and we can only wait and watch if he settles as he gets more minutes with his new teammates. In addition to these two, Timbers also have Julio Cascante, and Bill Tuiloma for backup.
Midfield
When you talk about the Timbers midfield, you have to talk about their two Diegos - Diego Valeri and Diego Chara. When you watch him play, Diego Chara might not be the most glamorous player on the pitch, but everyone would agree he is among the most valuable players on the pitch. As a holding midfielder playing usually in a 4-2-3-1 formation, Chara is routinely at or near the top of MLS in tackles and cards, and he brandishes his marking ability with unmatched ferocity. Just like Diego Valeri, he is someone who just doesn’t seem to age. In fact, he had one of his best seasons in MLS in 2019 at the age of 33
From one Diego to the other - Diego Valeri, the skipper, has been a vital part of the Timbers midfield for a few years now. Despite being 34, Valeri topped several charts for the Timbers in 2019. He is their main man, the one who creates the lion’s share of chances (and someone who can contribute a few decent shots as well)
| Passing Chances Created | Final Third Passing | KeyP | A | xA | | Passes | PassPct | xPassPct | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 8 | 9.5 | 0.076 | 828 | 65.2% | 62.8% | 20.5 | |
| 100 | 10 | 10.0 | 0.100 | 682 | 62.5% | 62.9% | 20.4 | |
| 68 | 9 | 7.6 | 0.112 | 635 | 66.0% | 65.9% | 18.4 | |
| 86 | 6 | 9.2 | 0.107 | 677 | 59.8% | 59.4% | 19.6 | |
Take a look at the table of Valeri’s assist and final third passing over the past four seasons. His assist and xA numbers for the last four seasons have been remarkably consistent, even as his role as a creator has changed. In his final two years under Caleb Porter (2016-17), Valeri put up robust expected assist numbers on relatively few key passes. He was getting the ball to his teammates in good positions, so the shots they took were of relatively high value. In his time under Savarese (2018-19), Valeri has maintained almost identical xA numbers to those under Porter, but that has corresponded with an increase in Key Passes, total passes in the final third, and the distance of his passes in the final third.
In other words, under Savarese, Valeri’s teammates are taking more shots directly from his passes, but the value of those shots is much less. Why? He’s crossing the ball a lot more.
Sebastian Blanco will be on the left wing. While he has played second fiddle to Valeri since his arrival in 2017, Blanco is the perfect foil to Valeri. Despite progressing the ball with his passes more than any other winger in the league, Blanco rarely turns it over in possession. On many other MLS teams he would be the best player, but seems to be at his best when attention is focused on Valeri.
In terms of new additions, Yimmi Chara, Diego’s younger brother, has fans most excited. When the Timbers attack from the left through Blanco, Chara can silently supplement the attack from the right. In addition to that, whenever the Timbers midfield transitions the play from the left to the middle, he will be expected to be ready to receive the ball, or at least create enough space for right-back Moreira or central midfielder Cristhian Paredes. While all this looks good on paper, it is only to be seen how well this is implemented in practice. With all due respect (if any is due) to Andy Polo and Dairon Asprilla, right wing has been Portland’s weakest position for years now, so adding Yimmi as a DP should represent their biggest positional upgrade.
Paredes has finally completed a permanent transfer from Liga MX side Club America. In the two years that he spent on loan at Portland, the midfielder has five goals and five assists in 48 games for the Timbers across all competitions. He started in 19 of his 22 appearances for Portland last season, bagging four goals and dishing out two assists in 1,651 minutes. With the permanent transfer now completed, Timbers would hope to develop Paredes into someone who can fill Chara’s massive boots once Chara finally decides to start aging (which, looking at his 2019 form, might be farther away than we think).
Attack
The Timbers’ last Designated Player signing of the offseason, Jarek Niezgoda, is currently recovering from a heart ablation procedure which he underwent before his transfer to Timbers was finalized. This makes it difficult for him to be fit to start for Timbers’ first fixture of the season, however, with the new options that he now has, Savarese will not worry about Niezgoda’s recovery too much. He, along with Felipe Mora, will provide additional options to last year’s joint top scorer - Jeremy Ebobisse. That is if Savarese does not decide to play Ebobisse on the wing, which is not his favored position. But with Yimmi now on the right and two new striker signings, it seems like Ebo may be relegated to a super-sub role in 2020.
One thing that works in Savarese’s favor is that each of the three forwards are very different and can be used at different stages of the game. For instance, Ebobisse likes playing in front of the defense, and sometimes even drops into the midfield to facilitate distribution and helps unlock defenses. When Timbers are more desperate in the attack, they can rely on Mora’s short, penalty-box bursts and his ability with his head. For teams that don’t defend deep, the Timbers can take advantage of Niezgoda’s eye for spaces around the defense, and leave it to their midfield to chip in with balls that can help him utilize those spaces.
2020 Expectations
This season fans will be hoping that Diego Valeri, Diego Chara, and Sebastian Blanco continue to display the age-defying form which has rescued the Timbers over the last few years, and Gio Savarese will be hoping to prove that he can sculpt the roster to play his preferred style. If Yimmi Chara and Jarek Niezgoda are able to integrate, this team has the talent to lift some silverware. If they don’t fit in and Savarese’s lack of tactical awareness and inability to adapt to his opponents holds them back, Portland could easily miss the playoffs in an improved Western Conference. All that being said, another mid-table finish seems most likely.