The MLS Journey So Far… Eastern Conference
/I’m not gonna lie, I wrote the Western Conference and I liked it. I liked it so damn much that I didn’t want to write about the Eastern Conference and you know why, because there is so much more going on. It’s twice as deep and a mile wide.
But what the hell, Kieran wants both halves and what Kieran wants, Kieran gets. Just like the Supernatural theme I went with in the first half of this, it has dragged on far longer than it should have and while most of it doesn’t work just be kind to me for old time sake.
15. DC United
The Road So Far:
Most were pretty real on what this team was going to be but they had a high floor with a designated player that could be an MVP candidate and a collection of solid MLS veterans along the back line. That can buy you a surprising result, maybe a playoff run, but alas.
Instead they are already eliminated from the playoffs and just not that interesting to watch. This is a team that turned over a huge amount of its roster this past off-season putting a lot of stock in their youth movement. Which makes sense considering who they had at their helm and what he was asking them to do. It’s not an old leg job. Unfortunately most of those gambles didn't pay off and their youth movement got Troy Lesesne fired.
Neither of their U22 signings (Kim Joon-Hong and Gabriel Pirani) really have shown any signs of life, and the team is going to prepare for yet another off season of retooling not just their roster but approach and scheme too.
Their biggest problem the last couple of years continued to be their biggest issue this year; they lacked any sort of cohesive midfield. It turns out guys not good enough to consistently get on the field in the powerhouses of Toronto and St. Louis do not a midfield make.
Ultimately, it was a gigantic waste of another season and a loss for Benteke who legitimately, could, and still might, be a late career legend for this organization who are both desperate and in serious need for a long term plan for a once proud team. But at stage it’s probably unlikely he’ll stick with the club for another season.
Potential player of the season:
Christian Benteke, duh.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Reading your new Chief Soccer Officer’s back catalogue on Kindle
I mean, they traded for Caden Clark last month, so maybe figure out if he can be that young play maker that you need and if you can or want to build around him but … you have a new coach and a new CSO and he just fired the entire recruitment staff so like who really cares.
While the overall cupboard feels a bit bare at the moment on MLS, and yes, they’re allowing a high number of shots and yes, those shots are being converted at a higher rate than what we’d expect… BUT looking at both g- and net g+ of Lucas Bartlett, Kye Rowles and even Aaron Herrera you might have something there and they are all cheap enough to at least build off.
While they’ve paid for U22 players and Benteke too. DC is in the bottom third in dollars spent this season and maybe that’s to take a season and try to recover some of the budget and cap space from ‘22 and ‘23 expenditures (which also didn’t really pan out) but they’re gonna have to dive back into that piggy bank if they want to compete in a very tight and heavily contested Eastern Conference.
14. Atlanta
The Road So Far:
I don't mean to alarm anyone but this team might be cursed… Wait, a lot of times we drag ourselves and own up to things. This time I’m gonna grab everyone and pull everyone into this. Because no one is safe.Major league soccer soccer dot com , Backheeled, Ben Wright for Givemesport, ASA!
Every rational person had this team as a playoff team. EVERY. PERSON. Don’t come to me be like “well Harrison, actually…” SHUT UP, NERD.
They spent the most money ever to acquire a player. They hired Chris Henderson as their new CSO, they hired an experienced MLS manager in Jim Curtin Ronny Deila. This was a team we knew were sure would win things and at bare minimum win enough things to have their manager take off his shirt. We all put it on the internet and you know what… MLS, and the internet, doesn’t care about your feelings.
This isn’t a bad team. They are at times a wholly boooring team. But they’re not necessarily a bad team. This is a team that, looking at their rolling NPxGD, should be right around a playoff spot not right around the wooden spoon.
And yet…
Potential player of the season:
Miguel Almiron and Aleksey Miranchuk
I think when people see some of the different rating schemes based purely on attacking and look at numbers accumulated it can be easy to lump two players together pretty easily but when you get some perspective of various lanes of what they contribute across the season and in different ways it’s pretty easy to see the difference in value.
Almirón hasn’t been “Almirón” this year and I know that's disappointing to some ATL fans that were hoping or even bold enough to expect it but he’s also 31 now. The speed isn’t what it once was and his impact is a bit different.
That said he’s been one of the true difference makers for this club in 2025 and should be again next year.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Contact Sam and Dean+lots of investment in salt.
We talked about this a bit on the podcast so I’m not going to belabor it, but they need to figure it out. There is an obvious hole in the midfield. They need quality depth along the backline and they also need to decide whether or not they’re ready for 21 year old Jayden Hibbert (-1.24 G-xG) to be taking over Brad Guzan’s (+3 G-xG saves) long held role between the pipes.
13. CF Montréal
The Road So Far:
Montreal have won all of five games this year, and more on the road than at home. This isn’t a good team by any objective measurement and it’s probably a worse run organization. I don't have a lot of very kind words for them and about six weeks ago they lost really the one good thing going for it in Corey Wray.
Wray will land softly, I’m sure of it. But they often isolate themselves from the rest of the league, they minimize the amount of information concerning them or their intentions and while they had some interesting moves over the last 10 years they now kind of look lost and with very little interest by anyone to include upper management.
I don’t say this to be mean to a fan base who deserves so much better. I don’t say this to make them feel as we as MLS fans don’t care about their team. Both are untrue and I think when they’re good, they are a fantastic watch and fun crowd with great MLS rivalries.
I really feel like they have a chance to adopt an FC Dallas model but I feel like even that is overspending for them in addition to the fact that they seem to rarely really embrace their heritage, roots or community. Overall this feels like a problematic franchise that I would love to see new management come in and take serious attempts to solve the challenges with it.
Potential player of the season:
Prince Owusu
Like, write this name down. I’m really interested to see what he can do on a not terrible team after back to back genuinely productive seasons for two of the league’s worst teams.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Find some self respect.
This is a team with… as I have mentioned, PROBLEMS when it comes to just about every aspect of this team and yet they have pieces like Nathan Saliba (nope, he got sold), George Campbell (also sold), Caden Clark (I’m beginning to sense a pattern…), Dante Sealy, Jalen Neal, and Mahala Opoku. All of these are relatively young and positive in terms of value. Whether to the team, or to the Saputo dairy empire bottom line.
12. Toronto FC
The Road So Far:
This season has been kind of a tale of two halves, but with neither of those halves being good just with the second half where the team finally got off their butt and did something about being bad. That thing they did about being bad wasn’t to actually get better rather it was to not be bad using expensive players. Now, they’re bad using cheaper players and players they maybe might use sometime in the future.
Now, are they as a club actually better now, towards the end of the season than at the start? The answer is a resounding yes. The move on from Insigne and, despite him being very good over his tenure, Bernardeschi too, was badly needed just from a team culture perspective. Just from the outside the vibes felt bad. But the extra steps with moving Matty Longstaff, Deybi Flores and most recently Ola Brynhildsen were moves made to free up both much needed first team roster spots and cap space.
This team has reportedly added over a million dollars in allocation this second window and with all three designated player spots free and assuming they part ways with Cassius Mailula (who is right now on loan with Kortrijk) they should have all their U22 spots free too. Similarly, this is a team with 14 expiring contracts/loans or team options totalling more than $4M in salary this offseason. Blank. Slate.
I will add that realistically, their defense isn’t totally bad and I kind of feel obligated to mention that. Though they've been giving a lot of minutes to 35 year old Kevin Long and Sigurd Rosted, which isn’t great but structurally the team has sort of worked defensively.
Potential player of the season
Theo Corbeanu.
Look, Corbeanu has stuck it out thick/thin and actually had a decent season. He’s an interesting dribbly winger that I am curious to see how he translates to a real team. Toronto FC have a buy option on his loan that probably isn’t prohibitive.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Struggle but persist
Robin Fraser said he’s not preparing for next year and that makes me feel like its not a great omen for his tenure. But I can't help but think that Toronto is sort of forced to give him at least another season as they are about to go through a reload. They just need some stability.
Adding Djordje Mihailovic was not small. He’s an impact level player in a premium position that is going to help Toronto win games in a way they’ve not had the last couple of years, and arguably since Alejandro Pozuelo. If Toronto can find one or even two more Djordje type impact level talents to add to this roster this is a team that can make some noise next season.
11. New England Revolution
The Road So Far:
It’s actually insane how bad New England was to start the year. Not purely because they were bad at defense, though you can see just looking at their rolling NPxGD that it wasn’t a strong April/May from them, but they just created nothing, with just under 11 xG in their first 10 games. They never really figured it out from there.
Over their stretch of 10 points in 14 games they had the third worst xGD in MLS. They gave up the second most amount of goals (28) on almost 26 xGA. Realistically, their team just was bad. Call it tactics, blame Porter, say the players were in slumps, whatever and wherever you want to label, from a measurable perspective, it wasn’t enough and Porter is gone.
Potential player of the season
Carles Gil. Who else?
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Create more, or something?
I’ve said a few times in the past couple of years that I was skeptical of Caleb Porter playing youth but low and behold they have legitimately gotten younger. Feingold and Miller are key pieces. There are a lot of 23-26 year old minutes in the squad. It’s not bad!
The return of Matt Turner will give them a stabilizing and talented keeper that they can trust along the backline as they will continue to make mistakes as young players do. But he’s in a unique situation to help be that difference maker and give them a chance to turn losses into draws and draws into wins taking some pressure off the attack.
However, this attack needs help. They have about one more serious run left with Carles Gil as the focal point but the team needs legit threat pieces to help him. While Campana and Chancalay have oscillated between fine and very good when healthy, the two have combined for 27 90’s, after combining for 24 90’s last year, and 28 90’s the year before that. Just sorta who they are.
This team needs another serious difference maker.
10. Chicago Fire FC
The Road So Far:
I’m not gonna lie, I thought this Chicago team was going to be better than what they have been and to be honest, if it wasn’t for a little congestion over six weeks, maybe I’d be right. Yes, I’m a Berhalter believer. Yes, I wanted him to succeed partially out of spite. But also Chicago made a lot of moves that I liked and had pieces to build off too.
As it stands right now they are on the very cusp of being a playoff team, Chicago has made the proper strides in Berhalter's first year as manager to be much better (in most ways) than what they were. It’s fair to say that Sam Rogers hasn’t yet worked out like they thought, Carlos Terán was transferred out, Jonathan Bamba has not meet the hype and it’s seriously time to look at a replacement for Maurico Pineda.
But while this team has holes in it, Hugo Cuyper has had an outstanding year and Philip Zinckernagel had made a huge splash, sixth in MLS with 22 G+A.
Potential player of the season
While we love goals and Cuypers/Zinckernagel have produced a lot of them, I’ve been a big fan of Gutiérrez for a while and I’m super psyched to see him take a much larger step forward this year overall and so right or wrong, I’m making him my team MVP.
One thing that is really vital to Berhalter’s system has been a midfielder that can truck and pass and then can get forward to be involved in the attack. Basically all the things. No one has gained as much Gutiérrez from Berhalter coming to Chicago and giving him trust and empowering him tactically both on and off the ball.
Look, I know the database puts both Puig and Valeri as “CMs” but realistically they were attackers and you might as well throw Fagundez in there too. This basically puts Gutiérrez alongside Cifuentes and a gassed up MAK in the midst of LAFC’s powerhouse season. This is a very special season that he’s having…
Oh, and he’s only 22.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Beat New York(s)
It’s the old adage, you don’t have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than the slowest person. They just have to be faster than… one of the New Yorks, likely Red Bull, and they are right there doing it.
Add in the fact that they hugely strengthened that backline with Joel Waterman (redacted by ASA management) and this team is getting very interesting, very very fast. They are a dark horse that could cause some teams to stumble come playoff time. Perfect example? Waxing Columbus this weekend and then beating Inter Miami. Kieran picked them as his “watch out for an upset” in the playoffs team on the podcast.
9. New York Red Bulls
The Road So Far:
I didn't think they're off-season moves were going to work out as well, they mostly have not, and it’s kind of the reason why their 15 year playoff streak is about to end.
Getting nearly 11 npxG+xA from Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, let alone nearly 2400 minutes and the finishing overperformance, is honestly absurd. He’s having a resurgent season and I was especially skeptical to begin the year. That being said, much of his, and the whole team for that matter, attack value has been derived from penalties, tied for second with 7 scored this season.
This team is most successful when they grind out victories in low scoring matches and force their opponents to find chances. In their 12 games in which they’ve allowed 2 or more goals they have all of 8 points which … I think illustrates the point perfectly.
Potential player of the season:
Noah Eile, a U22 signing, is turning into a near top-10 MLS starting CB this year for the Red Bulls and at only age 23. 8th in net g+ among CB, 14th in Def. Net g+ and 14 in g- and while he has gaps, as does the Red Bulls as a whole, he has still stepped up in a tremendous way this season.
Also, I’m not giving it to Choupo-Moting.
Goal for the Rest of the Season:
It sucks that this team needs attacking help and they don’t have any mechanisms that could hel---oh, they have a designated player spot? Oh...Oh, they have had that open to them for like the whole year and haven’t made any progress and pretty much made near zero signings in the second window despite also having cap space.
Look, the team dearly misses Lewis Morgan and I don’t mean like from purely a friendship perspective that keeps it real even during the tough times. It’s strange they didn’t find attacking depth and even additional wide player as that’s really what they miss most, Morgan coming from out wide and straight at goal. Obviously they miss his chances creation too and him being “on” because when he’s “on” he’s probably the best attacking option on this team... I SAID WHAT I SAID EMIL.
Last year we were all about Daniel Edelman and Cameron Harper being huge parts of the team's defensive framework. Harper while again being very good got bit by the MCL bug and after surgery is out for the rest of the year. The other half is Edelman who has surprisingly taken a bit of a step back this season.
Not a big step, he’s not been terrible or anything, but his on ball actions across the board are further down and so is his g-. Now, this isn’t baseball. We don’t measure things like Edelman kicking the ball or his running patterns or even his tactics+ because none of that is insightful or even a real thing (but seriously, tactics+? that sounds as if it were real).
What we know is that his numbers across the board have declined in value compared to what they were when he was kicking ass. If the Red Bulls want to return to being the same very scary team they were during the playoffs last season, Edelman needs to be a part of that transition and figure out how to be a bigger part of the solution in games. Oh also, all the TAM guys sucked and I just remembered Wiki Carmona existed, which probably tells you about his contributions to this teams attack. Lots to fix in the red half of New Jersey.
8. New York City
The Road So Far:
This isn't fun. Like, at all. No one wants to hear me write about this team when I know Paul Harvey and he can say better and more accurate things … so, here he is.
Paul: It’s been a confusing season. They brought in a new coach who everyone likes to replace a guy that nobody liked. He seems to be doing well, but they’re basically in exactly the same place as last season. It’s been like running on a treadmill where you can see the effort is there and it even feels like progress is being made but then you look up and you’re.. 8th. They didn’t make many signings with just three incoming of any note. Maybe it’s all just treading water until the new season is open, but maybe this is just the way it’s going to be going forward.
Also Keaton Parks was the best midfielder in the league again before going out with blood clot surgery again which is super annoying.
Potential player of the season
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Do the good but more better
Paul said it. They’ve been good. Solid, really. Consistent. But uh, yeah, it’s also just kind of solid. Maybe, a bit “mid” as the children would say. That’s not necessarily a dig at the team or their talent but maybe a dig at their performance game-to-game. Which lacks some real stand out moments sans their game against Chicago back in May.
That's honestly kind of wild considering that they have overperformed a bit according to expected points (1.63 per game while expecting closer to 1.41). I would say part of that is they’re doing amazing things with expected goals against (I SEE YOU MATT FREESE) and even more with preventing those chances from going in they just aren’t that same quality on the attack. But they still only rank 17th in xGoals created, and 10th in the east and that has killed what has quietly been a HELL of a season from Parks.
They’re not doing enough with the ball and looking at the data I don’t know what to do with Maxi Moralez. I’m not sure if this is a style thing, it’s possible he’s suffering from Pozuelo/Lodeiro syndrome with G+ but without Keaton Parks I suspect they’re not going to do enough to continue to out perform their expected goals against metrics which means they’re going to have to start doing more good with the ball.
7. Columbus Crew SC
The Road So Far:
This season has been a slight step back for the Crew, running an average 1.64 points per game (ppg) across the first 2/3s of the season. That might sound pretty good but for a team that has been dominant as they have over the past two seasons averaging 1.81 ppg and winning both The Leagues Cup and MLS Cup respectively. Something feels amiss.
Having to reload after losing Cucho, who was not just your best player, but the best and most versatile attacker in the whole league, has been a difficult adjustment for the team. And if that's all this was about, learning to move on without a star player, rearrange talent while also recruiting a designated player to his spot then maybe they'll be back making cup runs shortly but I don't think I'm alone in feeling that things just look just a bit off.
The defense for sure isn’t as sturdy as it was even at the start of the season and they look like they lack the ability to win the ball back. Just for context they’re ranked 20th in challenge percentage and second worst in aerial duel%.
I’ll be the first to openly admit that Challenges and Duels can be absolute meme stats, but my point is your team needs to have a way of gaining the ball back and right now that solution has been predominately, “wait until they’re done using it”, which hasn’t felt great and even a bigger deal with Sean Zawadzki recent MCL injury. The last few weeks they’re under performing xGA and this stretch run is starting to feel aged and mired like at the end of a cycle and rather than a reload. They just got whacked by Chicago. Chicago!
Potential player of the season:
It almost feels like I should give Nagbe some royalties on this as with his absence it’s starting to show case why Chambost is able to do what he is able to do but… regardless, this is to lift up and not admonish and while he doesn’t have all the fancy end product that Diego Rossi or even Max Arfsen does, his ability to influence Crew possession in such a dominating way and positive manner, especially entering the final third, has been huge this season.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Wake up, babe, it’s hardware season.
Despite any hesitance for where their team is with the recent defensive woes, the Columbus Crew are still the absolute Kings, with a capital K, of the short quick dangerous buildup. While Nagbe’s injury does pull Chambost back further into the midfield to help Taha Habroune, when on the ball going forward his intricate build-up with Rossi brings on butterflies.
Not only that but with Rossi you also have someone who can score goals as much as he can help set the table. Over on the other side you have Dániel Gazdag, I know you all don’t love Gazdag right now. With a G-xG south of -4 this season, I imagine “can’t finish” is among the nicer things said by supporters.
Gazdag is still dangerous and he’s still creating opportunities. I know it’s easy to say from my position but keep the faith. Because as we’ve seen with Wessam Abou Ali in just a short amount of time, he’s going to open up space in behind and while that seems more like Rossi benefit, it’s also going to help Gazdag too. I know very little of Abou Ali’s time outside of MLS, but this Crew team has such a high grade on their recruitment that I can’t help feel excited for it nonetheless.
This is a juggernaut of an offense and while they have the vulnerabilities, they have won tournaments and been tough competition the last two years. They will likely be arriving as a visitor and have to make their way through MLS playoffs without the privilege of much home field advantage but it doesn’t change that they can absolutely truck.
6. Inter Miami
The Road So Far:
Inter Miami is nothing if not consistent with their brand. They’ve got stars and everything is “bam” or “bazoom” or however you might describe the noise made by a firecracker. Essentially, they’re boom or…they’re kind of bust. It’s high xG and/or high xGA. Through 25 games this season 40% of the time they are over 2 xG, fourth highest in MLS.
With numbers like that it’s probably not surprising to mention that they’re out pacing their expected point total. But what would you expect with Messi leading that attacking charge for Miami? He’s essentially one of the few people on the planet you can bank on beating expected underlying numbers. Not only with xG but also, yet again, breaking our g+ metric.
The challenge for Miami and Javier Mascherano to achieve a playoff home game is to find more consistency and a greater contribution from the whole line-up especially along the backline. Their April-July where they ranked 27th in MLS in expected goals against can’t flair up again.
Potential player of the season:
Who else did you expect here? Messi is 38 and of course he’s still a very special player, blah blah blah. “hE iS oNe thAt StiLl deFiNeS tHe sPoRt and oh... my god, that’s so boring. He’s great. We get it. You know it. We don’t need advanced data to see or know that. Dude has been doing it for 20+ years. Whatever.
The most bullshit thing of all is before 2020, no one had put up a greater than 0.28 Net g+/96 season. That was by Ibrahimovic in 2019 who tied Robbie Keane’s 2014 record. Since arriving, Messi has broken that twice. Last year with 0.32 and this year now with 0.51(!!!). When I said he was breaking our G+ stat. He’s legitimately BREAKING. IT. It’s screaming. Messi is killing ASA. I know it’s cliche, but I cannot express the degree to which being 0.51 goals better than the average attacker is insane.
An aside: one goal of goal difference is worth about 0.6 points in MLS, so you can call that 0.2 wins (a win is 3 points, if you’re new around here). So Messi’s 0.51 goals added above average per game would be the equivalent of being 0.2 WAR per game better than the average MLB player (0.02 WAR per game). Messi would have a WAR of 35. That’d be triple the best season of Babe Ruth’s career. If basketball is your game, Messi is adding 25% of the goals per match (three goals per game in soccer, 0.75 raw goals added). The average NBA game has about 230 points. Messi is averaging 58 points per game. He is a Monstar.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Someone besides Messi, do something
I mention that Messi is 38 and also mentioned how schedule congestion is about to catch up with Miami, it’s a great time to now mention father time is undefeated (did you hear the page ripping when I tore it out of Matt Doyle’s playbook?) and they’re going to need to find time for Messi to catch a breather at some point. He’s already playing more minutes (2400) this year for Inter Miami than his first two seasons, that plus he the Leagues Cup (280) and Club World Cup (360) minutes too.
He’s not going to suddenly turn to dust and be bad but at a certain point in time you’re going to have to protect your greatest player from himself. That begs the question, who could and will step up. You’re not going to just replace him through the aggregate (there is one for the friends playing bingo in the comments) but I do think they’re going to need someone who is going to either help create and keep the high level creation or find a way to limit how many extra chances are being created.
Guys like Yannick Bright, who hasn’t had the greatest offensive g+ with passing and possession but has interesting defensive g+ numbers. There is also your starting CB pair of Maxi Falcón, Gonzalo Lujan, who both had potential coming into this season and have moments but need to elevate their game... oh, yeah, and Benjamin Crem----oh, bummer. Well, nevermind.
But the biggest “do something” has to be Rodrigo De Paul. The “fourth” Designated Player for Miami and arguably the biggest summer grab in the league. He’s only 31 and has the skills to come in to help Miami create goals without Messi and be the leader of this team on the field when Messi isn’t there. That may be a huge ask of a new player adjusting to both a new team, a new league and a new country but not as large of an ask as me not typing Rodolfo Pizarro multiple times before correcting myself and typing Rodrigo De Paul. Maybe a Freudian slip, maybe not.
5. Orlando City
The Road So Far
I’m totally and utterly shocked at this rolling NPxGD graph. Orlando when I think of them isn’t some object of consistency and beautiful steadfastness. They grind things out and win when they’re not supposed to or make things look ugly. It’s not that no one, myself included, thought Orlando was bad but … I don’t think anyone thought they were this good either.
Presently as a team, they are fourth in G+ difference and are top dog in G+ period. They are tied with the second most players with more than 10 npxG+xA (three) and are tied with the most G+ positive players (minimum 1,000 minutes played) with eight. This is a strong team from the top to the bottom and they’re not going to get beat easily.
Had last year not happened the whole question might be “do they have it when the playoffs come?” the question that Oscar Pareja had brought about with his coaching challenges over the years, it would become easy. But last year he showed that his team can beat the demons. Good, bad, whatever. Now, this season, they’re even better.
The attack itself has been miles ahead of what it was last year. It would just feel like at times it would falter and stall like a bad engine. This year Martin Ojeda has stepped up and not just been the unselfish creator but a complete difference maker with the ball. Creating goals and finishing off plays too. They were one game away from MLS Cup last year making it to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in their history. I think this is a team that could reach that next plateau.
Potential player of the season:
It’s hard to even consider anyone but Martín Ojeda as this teams MVP. 17 NPxG+xA is a lot and he sits 22nd in MLS in G+. He’s been such an impact player for this team and his growth and maturation into this teams 10 being trusted with the keys to the attack is just a really cool story.
But then there is Alexander Freeman. Freeman is doing what basically no fullback has ever done in the ASA data era. He’s now passed Kai Wagner, Anton Tinnerholm and Luca Orellano in accumulated G+ in a season and has Federico Bernardeschi well within his sights as he out paces him per minute. He could end this season as the all-time leader in G+ among fullbacks in a season going back to 2013. I will throw out that before this season Freeman had 11 career MLS minutes, and Paul Harvey was throwing him into USA 2026 squads by week three of the season.
This isn’t just glamor stats either. He’s not just throwing up a lot of low leverage passing g+. He’s throwing down in both def g+ and g- too. His net g+ 0.23per 96 is in the top-20 of any recorded season in the past 12 years and further than that it's the highest recorded by a defensive player. The only comparable season defensively is by his now teammate Eduard Atuesta in 2019 who put up 0.24.
Freeman is doing amazing and fun things. He’s all of 21. He’s going to go to Europe and he’s probably going to do some crazy stuff there too. Both of these are huge pieces behind Orlando City’s success and I don’t think you can be wrong if either win.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Try not to crash and burn
This is a crazy fun attacking team. I’ve thrown a few names out but let's throw out a few more. I haven't gone to Luis Muriel and Marco Pasalic who each have double digit npxG+xA. There is also Ivan Angulo who could push over the 10npxg+xa. Oh, and how crazy is it to think they’ve had this dominant attack and Duncan McGuire has missed most of the season.
This team is stacked. What I haven’t mentioned much of is the defense and while it’s solid and stable with Robin Jansson and PK legend Rodrigo Schlegel along the backline this isn’t a team that is going to deter as many shots as they did last season. In fact they’ve already faced more shots this season than they did all of last year.
That’s scary and if there is a weak point on this team that’s it. Pedro Gallese is objectively, fine enough for a keeper in MLS but he’s shown that he isn’t likely going to win you a game and relying on him isn’t choice one. He’s had moments saving big goals and those moments are important, not just for the time capsule but they build confidence and help you repeat the performance, but he’s not finished a season with more than 10 starts and under 0 in G-xG. He’s giving up, just about, exactly the goals you would expect. This is a team that will either live by the sword or will die by it come play-off time as we saw in the Leagues Cup semi-final game against Inter Miami.
4. Charlotte FC
I’m nearly convinced that Charlotte has been built off witchcraft. I don’t know if they got it off Etsy or maybe a brand I’m not familiar with but what they went with is doing work. Coaching and the rosters has to come into account at some point and while I think Charlotte has a solid coach, the line-up really is the interesting piece here.
Their roster construction is not strictly opposite of what we've seen with clubs like Miami and Orlando but kind of a mix between them and teams like Nashville and Columbus in that they have a very solid team and while they don't have “one” special player they do have a couple of very strong players that could (and have) put the team on their back in moments.
This isn’t the whole team has to be 100% on board Philly/Red Bull style but it’s still high enough that everyone comes time to make some real playoff noise.
Potential player of the season:
Like I know everyone is going to want to give it to Pep and he’s had such fun and amazing moments for Charlotte. A true definition of a spark plug but I really like Liel Abada. Like… I really like Liel Abada. He just does, or at least I feel he does… more on the field and provides more value. I think the numbers back that up. But also he’s played 600 minutes less and that’s not a small amount. Soooo lets split the difference and say they share and next year we’ll just give it just to Liel Abada. That’s fair, I think.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Just. Don't. Spill.
Despite knowing the talent of guys Adilson Malanda, Tim Ream and Wilfried Zaha Charolotte just feels like a team composed of playing cards carefully arranged into a pyramid. We know Kristjian Kahlina is a good goal keeper even if he’s not breaking xG save metrics again. But their underlying metrics just feel so carefully constructed and so carefully arranged to be productive that it feels like a sneeze is going to break everything and Brandt Bronico is going to go flying off the field.
Two things are going to have to happen if Charlotte wants to not just compete in the East come playoff time but make a serious run at MLS Cup.
A) They’re going to have to start doing the things that most good teams do, consistently collecting positive actions, shot creation and preventing high leverage situations from occurring
Orrrr
B) Just. Don’t. Spill
It’s like a child walking with a cup of kool-aid on a new rug or carpet. You don’t want to say anything or change their behavior because they might spill due to being overly cautious behavior but also you know that children are careless and suck and often fail to take into account things like “my parents just paid a shit load for this new carpet and I shouldn’t really be drinking my very stainable beverage in the living room”.
So… like, either or probably works.
3. Nashville SC
Nashville don't have just one single special player but have two... Add that to a very deep collection of guys who will no doubt feature strongly on “remembering some guys” in 12 years time and you have a team that is going to give you a fight for silverware.
Nashville has improved in almost every facet of the game compared to their 2024 version. They're a better attacking team, better defensive team, and when they need to be they’re actually not a bad possession team—which coming from a post-Gary Smith era is actually really crazy to think about. Presently Nashville ranks third in xGD and second in G+.
A lot of praise and credit should be bestowed upon BJ Callaghan who has really remade this team in his image. That despite plenty of roster turnover much of this teams core has remained the same. Out of the 13 players who have logged over 1,000 minutes for Callaghan, seven were starters with the last regime.
That doesn’t include key veterans such as Jacob Shaffelburg, Teal Bunbury or even Tyler Boyd who just made his return from his ACL tear from last season. Overall this hasn’t been a complete roster overhaul and while there are certainly some key pieces they’ve added to the recipe Callaghan has used the ingredients to make a BBQ all his own.
Potential player of the season:
The highest expected points added, the most non-penalty expected goals contributed and the third highest offensive g+. A big shout out to Ben Wright who has been screaming about this guy since 2024, and really since they signed him in mid-2023. I remember specifically, a conversation Ben had defending him early in 2024 and I haven’t forgotten it. It lives rent free and seeing Surridge succeed has got to feel great.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Be “doz guys”
If I could summon Dan Aykroyd from whatever alien archive he's presently researching, restoring or filming I would get him just to hear him just to say “doz guys” and I would play it every time Andy Najar or Daniel Lovitz or Jeison Palacios or Gaston Brugman do something very “guy-ish”.
All of these guys are positive g+ players who just do the underlying work. Collect the ball, distribute the ball, and get the ball into the final third. Najar collects some assists but aside from that it’s not very glory driven work but they’ve done it exceedingly well all year and really for this team to continue to push into that next level, they’ll need them.
Oh, and then there is Hany Muhktar and Walker Zimmerman too. I guess they’re pretty fantastic and in the top-20 in G+ too.
While I have you here, you should support Six One Five Soccer.
2. FC Cincinnati
It’s very odd to me to see this Cincinnati team sit second overall and then as you look through the data and start to ask…”well, how’d they do that?” They’re a good team with top talent; Evander, Luca Orellano and Miles Robinson are all arguably top-5 in their position within MLS. But you dust off the top of the MLS standings and while you see their points their expected point total is about a ⅓ of their current total.
They are presently -7.5 expected goal diff, good for 10th worst. They’ve created the 19th most expected goals for and conceded the 10th most expected goals. The expected goals against are especially interesting being that they’re a whole 13 goals under what they should have surrendered. This is a team who has spent more on their backline than any other team in MLS, and their xGA looks like… that?
You can contribute some of that to Roman Celentano who has absolutely claimed a portion of that through saves alone let alone positioning and defensive alignment on set pieces. But the rest of it is a little bit more difficult to identify. They look like they’re really good at encouraging bad shots, with the 4th longest shot distance against, 4th lowest shot on target percentage, and second lowest xG per shot conceded. That sort of shot diet is ripe for some xG beating.
It’s hard to see if this is sustainable. I think it’s not, but there is enough haze and vague peripheral evidence which makes me think there is something we aren’t seeing either through tactics or defensive approach. It’s going to be incredibly interesting to see over the playoffs and even next season how this team continues to perform defensively.
Potential player of the season:
Unsurprising, Evander sits third with 24 G+A over this 2025 season. I suppose you could say he's a dark horse MVP candidate again due to the pure volume of his contributions this year for Cincinnati. Additionally, while Evander has had big win game moments, Kevin Denkey has created just as much in the underlying stats realm and has a few of his own moments.
I think Evander is the center piece to this attack but while he’s who I consider to be the linchpin and focus to the attack, I think someone could construct an argument that Luca Orellano and Denkey could keep this team afloat without him. That said, he’s got the team lead in g+ and the points added lead. M-V-P.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Riot.
This might be one of my favorite teams to watch over the course of the season closing out. It’s that they’re good or bad, all purely from a narrative perspective. They’ve been the best team, across the last two years, winning the MLS Supporters Shield in 2023. I want so badly to watch this team take all of the frustration of the failed playoff attempts the last couple of years out on every team from now through the playoffs.
Really to do that they’re going to need more out of Kévin Denkey, and the recently reacquired Brenner. Denkey has put up some goals (13) but they need more consistent creation out of him, especially in and around the box. Bringing Brenner back on loan and hoping he can rekindle some of that 2022 magic.
Additionally Pat Noonan’s tactical ideas dovetail well with new addition Dominik Marczuk, acquired in the summer from RSL. There was a lot of interest in him leading into the season (from me, Harrison Crow, and nobody else) and it’s been a touch surprising to see him leave RSL but it’s an exciting situation for Cincy.
All of that gives FCC some really good options at their disposal to increase the danger of this attack as well as the tempo and pace where/if needed. The questions regarding the defense will likely subside if the team can figure out what they’re doing on the attack and continue playing on the front foot.
Also, they have a Kei Kamara.
1.Philadelphia Union
I don't think that I was the only skeptic going into this season. I feel like you had to at least question the decision making process in replacing a long time, upstanding and very successful head coach at the end of a very long and arduous season with tons of injuries that despite not making the playoffs felt like they could be proud of themselves.
I didn't think a return to their frenetic style was necessary and if I'm being honest I still don't. But regardless of if they could have been successful a different way, they are and have been very successful this way.
But if you wanted to further justify your skepticism, and really just to talk about how rational the doubt and how much they’ve sincerely accomplished this season, I think it’s worth it to look at how they replaced three pieces within their on the field spine, not to mention a fourth piece just after the season started. That's a lot of very important and key tactical positions critical to a team's success. It's fair to question them but they nailed it.
Not only are they successful and the leaders for the supporter shield they also leadthe league in expected goal differential and goals added differential. This is unequivocally the best team in Major League soccer in 2025 and with the run of form should have every advantage and opportunity a team can have afforded them as they march towards what would potentially be their first MLS cup.
Potential player of the season:
Kai Wagner is a very good full back and he does a lot outside the traditional bounds of the position that many do not. He’s been good for more than a couple years, in fact he’s had 5 straight seasons with more than 2.50 G+ created and it’s really surprising he’s not moved on just yet. But you know what, I really almost put Nathan Harriel here. What really won me over is Kai Wagner’s net g+ (3.87) and the fact that it’s just a bit better in areas that matter a touch more.
But there is also Tai Baribo’s 14 xG/15goals, Bruno Damiani’s 2.67 net g+ could make a case for this too. You could legitimately make a case for each as the team's MVP. Hell, throw Andrew Blake in here too. He’s got almost -3 G-xG and that isn’t a small thing. Bradley Carnell can finally say he got to coach a Designated Team.
One of the things about Harriel which stands out to me is he’s played every position on the back line. He’s legitimately the essence of what this team has built and that’s really what I believe to be the team MVP, in my opinion, not specifically Harriel or even Kai Wagner, though Wagner gets the nod. I just think Harriel is a great representative of that ethos.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Go deep
The Union have an argument for the deepest squad within MLS. The scary part about that is they didn't have four different competitions to compete in this year and with the lone exception of Andre Blake, they’re pretty healthy going into the stretch playoff run and have a bucket full of options at their disposal as they wrap up the season.
The simple expectation that I have as they close the season is two fold:
A) use that depth
Seriously, weaponize it. Use your bench. Sub early in the half, give guys some time off where needed and play match-ups. There is no reason that you don’t take advantage of every card you have in your hand as you close out the season. USE IT.
B) make a deep run
Again, you will have every advantage a team could collect from the league. They’re put themselves in position and now there are really no excuses. Make a run. I’m not saying MLS Cup or bust but you stand there top of the league with everything going your way, no pressure. Make this season count.