The MLS Journey So Far… Western Conference edition
/This year has been … wild. I’m not even just talking about the MLS season. Just within ASA itself it’s been wild and once or twice it’s been exactly that meme between Liz lemon and Jack Donaghy on 30 Rock where Liz looks at Jack and sighs exasperated saying “what a week, huh” and Jack casually strolls away while saying “Lemon, it’s Wednesday”.
This gameflow is basically that meme. Did you remember it even happening?!?! I do but also, I don’t. Like, my god–didn’t this happen two years ago?
As we are headed down the home stretch and the Leagues Cup is just about to finally wrap, it feels like time for one of those expositional catch up montages in a TV show. And really not just like what happened last week but like what the hell has happened in the last six months because, again, it’s been a lot.
Queue up your favorite late 70s/80s “dean core” rock song, this is your MLS “The Journey So Far” montage.
(also huge thanks to Catalina Bush for making these graphics for me!)
15. LA Galaxy
It hasn’t been a great run for the reigning MLS Cup Champs. An off-season where they had to unload key figures (Brugman, Delgado and Joveljic) to deal with cap compliance and accept they were without Riqui Puig (torn ACL) has left them dead last in MLS.
Looking at the graph above you can see they haven’t done a lot of the “preventing good shots while taking good shots” thing that makes good teams, well, good. You can also see on the chart it was just about May, over three full months after their first match, and the month they got their first win, that the attack actually started to “do things” but even with that it never reached the “what we would have expected” values considering their defense.
They finally put together a good stretch even making it to the Semi-final round of the Leagues Cup. But this is a team that has looked badly broken without its star, and while Gabriel Pec has been filling in, he hasn't been able to do it all himself.
Potential Player(s) of the Year Candidates
Gabriel Pec, 3.04 G+
Maya Yoshida, 2.43 G+
I don’t usually put a lot of stock in defender G+, but so much of Yoshida’s work is yeoman style passing the ball around and helping to control possession that I think it’s valid. Reus has been solid in limited minutes this year but his G+ and underlying numbers aren’t fantabulous and I still think Pec has had a bigger impact.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Return of the Evil Empire?
At this stage the Galaxy are out of any sort of Playoff picture. Like, in an impressive fashion out of the playoffs. In 500 simulations on the ASA predictor app (only available to our Patreon subscribers), the Galaxy made it exactly 0 times. It speaks to how terrible their start was with zero wins through their first three-ish months.
Maybe Puig comes back soon, he left a vague and teasing message on instagram back on August 10th, and after that it’s just about being that stupid yuppie arrogant team that we all hate that flashes a crazy good offense and a defense that asks you if you have heard of it.
I think if Puig can even get back to an inkling of what he was, this season that’s a huge thing for next season. Realistically he won’t be good right away and that’s okay. It takes a ton of time to return and just giving him minutes when you’re out of a playoff race means he can make mistakes and get that groove back for when it next matters again, in February.
14. St. Louis
The Road So Far…
Much of the 2025 preseason was about Olof Mellberg and building off a promising second half in 2024. And it did not start out poorly, a nice 8 points from 4 games coming out of the gate seemed promising but a hamstring injury to Eduard Löwen and unclear direction in tactics, created truly abysmal underlying numbers and an 11 game winless streak that saw them earn only three points, and the dismissal of Mr. Mellberg.
The team turned to SLC2 team coach David Critchley as the caretaker manager and while the defense hasn’t done more than have a couple awkward bounces down the stairs, the attack has taken a sincere step forward - averaging 1.71 xG over 10 games, up from the 1.27 xG in the previous 15 games.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Marcel Hartel 0.03 G+
Likewise, Marcel Hartel’s G+/DAVIES isn’t great but his xG and xA is legit and really he’s been their most consistent and best offensive piece all season. If they were to get a whole season of a healthy Eduard Löwen and maybe organize that backline better they’re a potential back-end playoff team.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: **deep sigh**
It’s August and Matt Doyle wrote about their problems two months ago, we’ve gone through a transfer window and it’s still a prime issue. Sooo… like, I guess the game plan is to just exist?
13. Sporting Kansas City
The Road So Far…
I feel like this season for SKC is a classic “record scratch” meme
“Hi, I’m Peter Vermes, long time coach of Sporting Kansas City. Yeah, that’s me about to die to Anakin Skywalker there but, listen, ownership told me there was no money for anything and I led this failing roster which is exactly why Darth Vader gets everything he got, he doesn't get a failing droid army. No, he got the clones, the storm troopers, the Boba Fetts…and me, I’m why he got it all and when he brings home success just remember what I had at my disposal and look back on my contributions to the cause fondly.”
Listen in all seriousness, Vermes was awesome. While the organization did the right thing by moving on from him, he stuck with vets too long, he didn’t find those same key midfield cogs needed and his tactics were a bit stagnant/not adapting to the modern league. He also shouldn’t have been doing it alone. It was a huge lift. Not only that, but ownership gave him near zero money.
While Vermes was finally relieved of his duties after starting out with a single point in four games (why is the coach still there if you’re willing to fire them after four games?), this year it just hasn’t really gotten any better. The organization needed a change but also going through this roster is like going through an old garage after someone has passed away. You remember certain pieces, and may even kind of get excited out of some weird sense of nostalgia but then can’t remember why it, or they, are even around (mostly). Also there’s a bunch of artifacts from a strange trip to Greece.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
The Fans… like, this isn’t the worst MLS team that’s ever existed but it might be the worst run organization and yet despite that frustration people keep showing up and keep cheering and … I think that’s fantastic.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Just… *waves hands* fix it.
This might be, on paper, the worst roster in MLS. This historic franchise needs a face lift, it needs a discernible identity because it’s presently lost and that’s honestly so tragic but before you get there you need to try every nail and hammer in the toolbox and you need to see what you have at your disposal to begin that rebuild.
It’s not even that the team has terrible pieces or even a terrible budget situation. They have some young guys who might be interesting™ (Jacob Bartlett, Jake Davis, Jensen Miller) and I wonder if Manu García isn’t actually a really talented play maker that can continue. Add to it a functional Dejan Joveljić (the LA version, not present) you have the building blocks for a playoff team but so much work still needs to happen and SKC needs to decide who even they believe in to begin this overhaul and rebuild.
Mike Burns hadn’t been with a club for five years prior and much of his focus following his New England departure was helping build MLS Next and MLS Next Pro. I’m not saying he can’t lead this rebuild or shouldn’t but it would seem they need a lot more pieces to this puzzle just in the front office in terms of infrastructure, recruitment and scouting. SKC has a tremendous amount of technical debt behind letting one guy run the show for so long.
12. Houston Dynamo
The Road So Far…
Houston realistically is boring. They’ve had some problems finding the net but their defense isn’t so bad as just not consistent. That being said, they went through a fairly strong run where the attack was starting to grab traction and produce both in games at times but also consistently in the expected peripheral as well. They were starting to trend positively and then… they weren’t.
Signing Jack McGlynn was not a small thing this off-season and he’s probably been their best player all year. But he’s also not that pure creative attacking piece they need. It’s kind of the same song and dance going on three years now. A stable core, built around possession and defense that can have fun moments but is far from consistent in the attack.
I’m not saying that fault is Ben Olsen but I do think it’s time to figure out why the scoring issue continues to exist. Ezequiel Ponce has had his moments and to his credit is the only real goal dangerous piece on the team but also there are questions of if he fits technically. It’s of course not just Ponce, there is Sebastian Kowalczyk, Ondrej Lingr and Amine Bassi who should all be shouldering some type of the responsibility for an underwhelming attack.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Jack McGlynn
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Suck, like, maybe, 6.3% less
Houston aren’t out of the playoff hunt, actually at this stage it’s kind of a free for all on the last couple of spots and while there is plenty of competition the points they need from upcoming matches doesn’t necessarily mean finding goals. Points are points and at this part of the season you just need to not make mistakes. Fewer mistakes and playing opponents tough has gotten many teams into the Playoffs and that’s kind of been their bag.
11. FC Dallas
The Road So Far…
I don’t even know what this graph is honestly. It almost looks like if you told an 8th grader the answers to a test but also told them they had to get a “C+” to make it look legit.
Every time Dallas has the defensive performance it's needed, the attack has fallen on its face and every time the attack has stepped up, the defense has just absolutely dropped the ball.
It probably speaks just to how young and inexperienced parts of this team is and how much roster it turned over over the past year. The organization as a whole has echoed that return to their roots of development and academy first and that’s great but it also means growing pains and time for a team to really gel.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Stop worrying and get Petar Musa some help
It's really not that simple though. I think they have the talent but I think it needs time to develop and I think a lot of what the team needs is just some consistency in both approach and game model. Dallas turned over almost half their roster last season and the team they have right now needs more time together.
The crazy thing is Petar Musa is the legit goal scorer this organization needed five-six years ago and one of the strongest “9s” in MLS. Despite that the team just can’t find any way of building an attack through him. The frustration at the lack of offense is made all the worse by Luciano Acosta and his continued contested MLS existence which saw him finally get the transfer he desperately wanted.
Dallas has the potential to sneak in the back door for a playoff spot but they just have to find a way to build the connection between both sides of the field and find how they can blend that into just making fewer mistakes.
10. Real Salt Lake
The Road So Far…
This has been a borderline terrible team at times this year. And, really, not just this year. And not just last year. This has been a theme. Every year I feel we find this place of “this is now them and this is the moment of their ascension” because they start to play good and things come together, but like a plot of a Neal Stephenson novel it’s going to kind of drift and which way, no one can really know.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Justeen Glad, I guess.
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Keep doing the good-ish things
This is kind of self explanatory. Put the ball in the back of their net and keep it out of yours, pretty simple but we all know it’s not. It distills rather into specific moments and while through a lot of these teams that sit on the precipice of a playoff seed, RSL is a much wider road, or maybe I just think that because I believe they have the largest and greatest home field advantage along with the Colorado Rapids.
If you asked me what they do well? It’s easy, they’re a solid passing and possession team. G+ even backs that up. I love seeing Pablo Ruiz in the midfield and I feel he’s part of that quality and part of why they’ve gotten stronger this season as he’s gotten more minutes. I think he might be the single most important player to this team in their second half push. Because that strength is kind of countered against the weakness of individual play and turn overs in bad places.
So in lies, the mantra “do good-ish things”. Don’t turn the ball over in bad spots and keep finding positive passes in possession. Keep winning the ball in opposing teams' defensive thirds (they’re actually 9th in MLS at doing that) and then find ways to turn that into opportunities in the penalty area.
ALSO PLEASE STOP SHOOTING FROM DISTANCE!!!
9. San Jose Earthquake
The Road So Far…
San Jose Earthquakes had a crazy winter, hiring Bruce Arena and then recruiting a bunch of his archetype of players. But one thing that we know is that Arena has managed to get results and raise the quality of play at club by doing the little things. It’s probably one of those small things he picked up along the way while becoming one of the most legendary managers in US Soccer history.
Cristian Espinoza who continues to be the team's attacking talisman is also the league leader in both expected assists and key passes. He was joined this year by attackers Cristian Arango and Josef Martinez. Both of whom have had their ups and downs but are impact level scorers experience in MLS.
Combined the three of them have collected 26 goals together this season and at times have been as dominant an attacking force as there is in MLS (yes, I do see you Orlando). That said they are the counter weight to what is potentially also one of the worst defenses in MLS.
San Jose has somehow walked their Galaxy rivals 2024 tight rope of being so good on the attacking side that it doesn’t really matter the mistakes they make because they’re planning on scoring more anyways. The problem is that they don’t quite have the dominant force that the Galaxy had and there are signs that they might not be able to pull it off. But then again, why not?
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Cristian Espinoza
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Don’t suck-–like at all. Zero room for suckage.
This is a team that has all the underlying numbers and pieces saying it could very well be a very solid team. And while a home series is out of the question it’s not crazy to think they could move up the ranks should any of the teams in front of them stumble.
They could also fall out of the playoff standings completely. Houston and RSL are two teams that if they stopped messing around could put a lot of pressure on them and their position in the standings. How high they jump or how far they fall depends very much on the impact level players.
The best news of all for Quakes fans is that at least Kansas City isn’t waiting on the other side of the playoff door. They may get a chance to have a new boogie man appear.
8. Colorado Rapids
The Road So Far…
Ben Bellman said he came to think of 2024 in three acts and 2025 is strangely poised to set up a potential three act play but rather serving as the middle part for a follow up in what could be a potential successful trilogy of Chris Armas and the braintrusts in Commerce City.
We’re in the Empire that Strikes Back part of this and there is some things to overcome for sure. They’ve taken Djordje and I get that it hurts and that fans are frustrated but one of the most dangerous things about Colorado is how young they are and how many interesting™ pieces they have around their midfield.
Last month they put up the third highest xG for a team in ASA history which was corrected for 5.25. A month later they went to Seattle, and despite being 3 goals down managed to rally and get three huge goals in the second half.
Look, game states are going to allow a team that is down to rack up xG. Particularly against this SKC team. And that happens but Colorado still has a ton of talent still around and not transferred to Toronto. This season isn’t a wash and I still think between the goals living on another plane of existence a midfield with an elite work rate they could mess up and upset some people going into the playoffs.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Rafael Navarro / Zack Steffen
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Quietly put rounds back into the gun
No doubt they owed both their fans and players some needed help on the wings (mostly in the form of Paxten Aaronsen who has looked VERY good in small minutes so far) and a difference maker on the defensive backline but that notwithstanding this team has pieces and I still think they could be a lot of fun to watch come MLS playoff time.
7. Austin
The Road So Far…
The Vibes for Austin were pretty high entering the season for Austin. They hired Nico Estévez, post FC Dallas firing, and then signed Myrto Uzuni and Brandon Vaquez for reportedly near $20 million in separate moves. That’s a lot of change for any club in an off-season and all of it felt very positive, not just at the roots of its community but also among the national media.
It even started out pretty good too. A scrappy win over SKC to open the season and then a series of wins against LAFC, San Diego and St Louis City too. That’s a great little string. But since the middle of April their defense has fallen off and the attack just hasn’t been able to stand up on its own, particularly after the injury to Brandon Vazquez.
They have gotten the performance when needed to land themselves in a good spot heading towards the back nine of the season but serious questions abound about this attack and if it’s actually improving and getting better.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Trust fall exercises
I’m not sure what retreat they need to go on but I’m sure Matthew McConaughey can hook them up with some sort of group guided meditation therapy and just get them all on the same page. I have a lot of faith in Nico Estévez but I also had a lot of faith in Gonzalo Pineda to work it out in Atlanta.
I’m not sure what they do to amplify the attack. They realistically can’t continue to be this mediocre in the attack (22nd in xGF) with the talent they have and it’s trending slightly in the right direction over the last six weeks.
The defense has actually not been that bad on the whole and I’m actually a big Brad Stuver fan the last couple of years with what he has contributed to this team on the downlow. If the team can’t figure out how to generate more chances (and to be fair they are trending in a positive direction the last six weeks) their playoff hope is tied to this defense and Big Game Brad to keep things close.
It’s not a thing but I will make it a thing if I have too.
6. Portland Timbers
The Road So Far…
The Timbers had a rough start to their past off-season after MLS introduced cash transactions as a new acquisition mechanism. It directly was followed by the “when will they” divorce of Luciano Acosta and Cincinnati FC leaving Ned Grabavoy kind of stuck in the “when are we losing him and for how much with Evander” limbo.
They did manage to bring in David Da Costa and realistically, while he’s not Evander, he’s still been a very solid replacement and a huge part of their tactical progression and final third attack, providing 9 open play xG+xA. The team didn’t stop there, also adding Joao Ortiz as the heir to the role long held by Diego Chara. Costa and Ortiz would help build the team's new midfield triumvirate next to David Ayala.
Fast forward now seven months and aside from about a month of play the numbers are pretty underwhelming as a whole. They sit in the bottom half of xG for and xG against. Their G+ numbers are mostly pedestrian and yet… and yet, they are still 6th in the Western Conference.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
David Da Costa
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Just don’t completely fall apart
The Timbers really don’t have much to do this last stretch aside from just “don’t fall apart” and they should make the playoffs. They have reinforcements, wingers Matias Rojas and Kristoffer Velde with new designated player Felipe Carballo being added to that already strong midfield.
There is a chance they even get enough vibes going that they do some crazy stuff in the playoffs and win a few games. I think that's pretty lofty and honestly probably insane considering, from a G+ perspective, they’re potentially one of the worst playoff teams in the ASA era. But like, have a go or whatever the kids say these days.
5. LAFC
The Road So Far…
I mean, I say probably as the means of having an out when you point out something that I forget but LAFC is, probably, the most talented team in MLS. They’re just an insanely talented team and their numbers continue to bear that out year after year. And with Cherundolo coaching his last year with the team he kind of has a high school senior card blanch to kind of run things however the f*ck he wants.
Yeah, the team has had underwhelming results and yet despite that they have shown amazing numbers and every indication that this still is the juggernaut of a franchise that we think it is. So what do you do to fix it? You spend $20 mil on the biggest Asian talent to ever come to MLS.
The addition of Sonny injects new life and new star led accountability to a team that might just need that. While they're likely not catching San Diego it's entirely possible they leap frog over Minnesota or Seattle for a home game or two. And boy is he popping (he has a brace against RSL as this gets edited).
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Denny Bouanga
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Harness the immaculate blessing of being LAFC
Any other team would be either ripped to shreds or drift into obscurity (meaningful eye contact directed at RSL). It’s good to be LAFC, no doubt. Their ownership and front office put forth the needed resources to get them what they think they need and that’s enviously and frustratingly annoying. But the other side of the coin is Montreal who parted ways with Corey Wray, maybe one of the only good things about that organization’s executive staff, and you have to shrug your shoulders a bit and think “well, at least it matters to them” because it doesn’t for everyone.
4. Seattle Sounders
The Road So Far…
The Sounders loaded up heavy this off-season. If there is one other team that can go near toe-to-toe with LAFC on talent and depth it’s the Sounders. Unfortunately, much like LAFC the frustration is that it really hasn’t come together quite as nicely as they had hoped, at least in the league.
That said, despite the schedule congestion and the test of depth they’ve really put together a very quality season, much better than I would have thought. If you had asked me where I thought they would land given the injuries and schedule, I would have guessed 9th or 10th. Instead they’re 9th in Goals Added Difference in MLS and 5th in the West.
Not only that…
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Cristian Roldan
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Toss A Coin To Your Witcher
They have some legit monsters to battle if they really want to reach the MLS Cup finals for another chance at a trophy. It’s not an unreasonable goal either but they’re going to need someone to stand up big in those moments. Maybe It’s De La Vega, maybe it’s Rusnák (if he gets healthy in time???), and maybe it’s Danny Musovski, and maybe it’s Osaze De Rosario.
And, yeah, maybe I’m a big nerd. So what? You’re here too.
3. Minnesota United
The Road So Far…
Minnesota picking up where it left off last season. A team that trended better and better as the season went on, and the addition of Kelvin Yeboah was not small. Coming in to 2025 there was high expectations and they came out hard winning 22 points out of their first 12 games with an xGD of 5.76.
The Loons have a great chance, but despite the gang buster start they have somewhat slowed. They’re a neutral at best xGD since the first third of the season and the inevitable question of “what happens if you concede first?” or “how do you do stuff in not transition or set pieces?” is starting to come up more and more, as they lost to Austin in the USOC semi-final.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Kelvin Yeboah / Anthony Markanich / Joaquín Pereyra
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Finish as you started
Yeah, yeah finish the job and all that. Anyways…
Bongokuhle Hlongwane. That’s it. That’s the whole bit here. Bongokuhle Hlongwane. Dude is unreal and I don’t feel anyone is talking about it. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Third all-time in Minnesota G+ trailing only Reynoso and DARWIN QUINTERO. (They also sold Tani Oluwaseyi and that’s a problem but who knows they’ll figure it out)
Life, as always, is peculiar.
2. Vancouver
The Road So Far…
Vancouver from the very jump has just been… good. Not like, great or historical. I mean, for a short time we were talking about a run at the MLS point total record but like, they’re good. Their xGD is in the top-5 of MLS, all their G+ numbers are in the top-5. This is a solid team, through and through, maybe the best in MLS.
Weirdly, it has been sort of not smooth sailing? July came and stirred things up at the club as they parted ways with Pedro Vite, transferring him to Liga MX and UNAM. Vite, third on the team in G+ and just on the whole a huge cog in the midfield wheel. He was a sizeable loss to what they’ve done this year. Within that week they then lost starting centerback Ranko Veselinović for the season due to injury. Ryan Gauld, club talisman, has virtually not played. Brian White, currently injured. Cubas, Ahmed, Blackmon have all missed time. Allocation Adekugbe out for the season with an Achilles. Don’t matter!
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Brian White
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Just Freakin’ Ball
Enter Thomas Muller, stage left. The health of Ryan Guald made the midfield depth feel a bit shallow on this team but as he draws closer to a return, It would seem likely that Müller may fit best as an impact level sub as a means of managing minutes.
Obviously, he's going to get starts for the team and they're going to give him a good share of minutes, but his legs are relatively fresh, because he played this exact role with Bayern the last 18 months. Rotation starter and super sub when needed.
As Vancouver is racing towards a chance at winning the Western Conference and a legit challenge to the MLS Cup, Müller makes sense as a guy who can start one game and then the following come in and effect games either mid way through or even in late moments if needed. This is a team that does have a couple of holes and isn’t perfect but they also have a lot going for it and is a terrifying team to have to face come the playoffs.
1.San Diego
The Road So Far…
There are plenty of teams that have had success at the start of their franchise, Chicago were MLS Cup Champs, LAFC set the record for points by an expansion team and St Louis City SC even won the West their expansion year. But while we’ve seen a few different manifestations of these successful teams, San Diego added a twist.
They built around a cohesive identity and system of play almost out of the box, collecting young talent to supplement the attacking Designated Players. That youth, as has been mentioned elsewhere, was largely due to the connections of both Tyler Heaps and Mikey Varas coming from US Soccer.
The organization turned that process into one of the best defenses in MLS. Top-5 in goals added against, xG against, passes against them in the attacking third and even progressive passes. But they don’t do this with just aggressiveness or a highline, they do it with the ball. While they pick their moments to press, and they’ve won a league leading balls in opposing third, it’s all about the possession. The prime architect of this is Jeppe Tverskov who leads MLS in both passes attempted and completed, the next guy on the list in both categories is the guy right behind him on the backline Christopher McVey.
The philosophy of having the ball and possessing it, allows both Tverskov, Luca de la Torre and Anders Dreyer (MLS assist leader) able to pick out targets and create high value opportunities behind defenders and even in tight situations unlocking defenses. While it can be somewhat tepid, the lack of dangerous turnovers against enables a rag tag crew of defenders and in goal to be one of MLS’ best backlines.
Potential Player of the Year Candidates
Hirving Lozano / Anders Dreyer
Goal for the Rest of the Season: Don't go changing
San Diego has picked up depth during the summer transfer window (Pedro Soma, Corey Baird, and David Vasquez) they’ll get some time, Vasquez especially. But I wouldn’t think this is a team that will be forced to really change much of what they do.
They’re a rather young team, they’ve not had a lot of schedule congestion and while they do play a bit of tempo in their tactics it’s not to the extent they’re rotating players. They are pretty healthy. This is a very very good situation for San Diego with the only real question is if they can keep… waves hands all of this going.