2026 MLS Previews: St. Louis City FC, New England Revolution, Houston Dynamo
/Our 2026 MLS Season Previews have started and today we hit STLCITYFC, the Revs, and the Houston Dynamo. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.
Do you know de Wray?
Foreword
Look, I'm here to write to the people that are probably not super familiar with this squad and bring them into their plight. I’m not here to get seven miles deep in Zack Lillington and how he projects over the next few years as a CB and/or a CDM (I ALREADY KNOW WHERE YOU STAND PAUL).
So, if you are looking for deep analysis I have a few other stops for you to go and support:
Tom Franklin and Jeremy Clement over at Red Smoke Rising
Matt Baker, Flyover Footy
Justin Horneker, lots of things (MLSsoccer, talkinsoccer, ect)
And lastly Michael over at Chat City Tactics Substack.
The Actual Preview
St Louis City has put themselves on the radar in a rather negative fashion the last few years between their front office approach, which has been largely suboptimal, and the overachieving expectations it built for their very dedicated supporters. It culminated in a franchise reboot that is more than a little familiar for those who follow MLS.
A new Sporting Director in Corey Wray, a new Assistant Sporting Director in Ally Mackay, a new Head Coach in Yoaan Damet. There’s even a fun symmetry in expectations for all three. Wray has long been looked upon favorably by analytics heads after his time in Toronto and then Columbus with maybe the best squad builder in MLS history, before kind of bombing out of the Saputo-verse in unceremonious fashion. Mackay was a trendy agent turned GM in Nashville and then DC, where things went spectacularly poorly. And Damet was once the hot young coaching prospect on the block, before a very poor Cincinnati interim stint left him waiting another five years for a head coaching gig. A second chance at a new opportunity for everybody.
That is a lot of “new” going into a new season and yet with all that said, there is a very positive feeling around the state of this rebuild--that doesn't feel like copium and instead is more reflective of the talents and leadership that has been brought in over the last six months.
Both Wray and Damet know each other from, among what is assumed other things related to the MLS ecosystem, the Columbus Crew where they spent 2023 and some of 2024 together before Wray went to Montreal. I connect this dot because I think based upon what we’re seeing in early pre-season there is going to be an overlap of principles between those teams and their attacking philosophy.
But the primary off-season additions (Rafael Santos, Daniel Edelman, Dante Polvara and Mbacke) aim to further add to the defensive structure including Burki and Eduard Löwen. We don’t think of Columbus on the defensive side of the ball, but a huge amount of their success was built upon the performance of their back three and midfield double pivot. St. Louis added some serious talent at centerback in Fallou and Mamadou Fall, which will enable A LOT. Another interesting comparable based upon early style of play might be San Diego FC, Polvara and Edelman can be a true double pivot, allowing Löwen less defensive responsibility and the ability to do more in possession. Regardless, these moves all feel functional.
One to watch
If you're new to our space, welcome. I have a thing for unexpected goalscorers who pop on the metrics but you don’t think about. Once upon a time, Patty Mullins, more recently, Danny Musovski. Next up? Simon Becher.
Obviously the three goals on 8.72 xG is gonna stand out, and even sting a bit. But in this house we believe the ability to continuously get good chances is a more reliable skill than the variance around finishing them. If gets both the service and the type of involvement he has in the attack, it’s very unlikely he continues such a poor under performing pace of goal scoring.
However, more than just the expected goal numbers, Becher finished 11th overall last season in total accumulated offensive G+ among attackers (ST, wingers and attacking midfielders) and was 4th in per 96 goals added amongst those with at least 1,000 minutes played.
The G+ and xG numbers are all very positive but knowing that the organizational brain trust has traded a key starter in Joao Klauss, ahead of Becher in the depth chart, and then has handed the scoring keys over to him feels like (to me) there is a vote of confidence and possibly more than just underlying numbers here.
If this doesn't fall apart
This is a team that is in the middle of rebuilding the plane and doing it a bit while also trying to taxi and take off. That's partly just the sport and the reality of the league as a whole, it’s complex and not always easy. I think that's a great summation for the team right now though, it’s not going to look good at times and it’s not going to go well at times but I think the structure and long term success is about being built and this team looks like it has all the right ideas of how to do it.
Unfortunately, this is the start of a rebuild. The floor is low and realistically could be spoon adjacent. This team needs talent. I like a lot of the defensive additions in Edelman, the Falls, but even with my Simon Becher shaped hopes, I think it’s fair to wonder how they’re going to win games consistently right now. Who gets and creates the goals?
On the upside? Maybe the defense is legit. Bürki goes back to being that guy in net, Becher turns into Brian White 2: Electric Boogaloo, and this team is a low end playoff team. They will probably need the following to get there:
Eduard Löwen stays healthy-ish and can play 3/4 of the season (2300~ish minutes)
Marcel Hartel can provide 10+ assists
Mamadou Fall is the defensive difference maker we remember at LAFC
Becher scores 12+ goals.
Burki is a very consistent positive
That puts them maybe in the playoffs but hitting on all five of those feels like a lot to ask. There are a lot of unknowns. Around the talent, around Yoann Damet, around the general shape of everything. But maybe everything hits You have a team that pushes past “hunting” for a playoff spot, can add a designated player or two, and…
Baby steps.
The Declaration of Independence from Caleb Porter
The Revs honked in 2025. By xGD they fell ahead of only truly abysmal Toronto and SKC teams. In September they finally rid themselves of the shadow of Qeleb Pora'tor. The less said about basically everything that happened under his reign of terror in Massachusetts the better.
So, you, the astute MLS preview reader, devoid of the affliction of being born and raised in the greater Boston area, are wondering why you should care about this team in 2026? I think they might be fun. The Revs went out and hired US U-20 and U-23 coach Marko Mitrovic, a name that a lot of people like. Mitrovic was a long time assistant of former Chicago fire coach Veljko Paunovic, who has somewhat struggled in his career post a very successful Serbian youth national team, but continues to get big jobs. Eventually he joined the USYNT pyramid, with a series of “Meets Expectations” youth tournaments and a strong U-20 World Cup quarterfinal appearance in 2025, bowing out to winners Morocco.
This is not some incredible can’t miss resume, but some thoughts: in the United States, US Soccer is virtually the only real coach development wheel. Teams are not really producing coaching trees, the last MLS assistant to get hired and immediately do a good job is like Robin Fraser? Jim Curtin? USSF coaches often have the timeframe to take a step back and actually develop themselves as coaches and engage with what is leading edge practice. This, in my opinion, is extremely well reflected in the game models presented by San Diego’s Mikey Varas and Nashville’s BJ Callaghan, who play extremely enviable styles (and outputs!) if you were say, the Revolution.
In terms of focus, this team kind of needs everything. They’re bottom seven on both sides of the ball by expected goals, they take a midtable-ish number of shots but of considerably below average quality while allowing a lot of above average quality shots. That is very much reflected in the business this team has done. In come young Americans Ethan Kohler, Griffin Yow, and Brooklyn Raines.
Kohler puttered around the German lower leagues with Werder Bremen II, but Yow and Raines have a track record in pro minutes, that might… *record scratch* kind of suck? Yow played five years ago and was fine but did the g+ equivalent of a stats glitch by just being listed as a fullback and doing anything modestly useful. Since then he has gotten moderate amounts of playing time for one of the worst teams in Belgium. Raines was not productive for a very not good Houston team. And going back to Kohler, again, German youth ball. These are the cavalry. Mitrovic will have to work with what he’s got.
What’s in the cupboard?
Turns out, not a lot. Carles Gil still balls. Peyton Miller, Will Sands, Tanner Beason are maybe real guys. Mamadou Fofana and Brayan Ceballos could be interesting. I mentioned three centerbacks who semi frequently played together in a three, and were very bad. You see the dilemma. Dor Turgeman has a reasonable track record of goals in an exceedingly poor Israeli league, but scored (and put up decent xG) in limited minutes since joining in August. Leo Campana has been a good player in this league, despite not being good last year. So what do you do?
None of these players can pass. Amongst every single player who remains on the roster and played a game for the Revs in 2025, the only above average passer by g+ is Carles Gil.
Goal #1 for this team is to find a structural solution to ball progression, because none of these guys can do it themselves. The sweet, naive preview writer of four paragraphs ago comparing them to San Diego or Nashville would point at the use of guys like Anibal Godoy and Chris McVey becoming ball progression engines, as a sign of hope for the Revs future. They’d be wrong. This team would kill for Godoy in midfield. Jackson Yueill looks at Anibal Godoy and sings “That should be me” wistfully into the cold New England winter air.
Mitrovic is going to have to find ways to get midfielders on the ball, facing forwards, with players to receive. Expect a lot of “roll outs” (a midfielder rotating to FB), expect a lot of defensive midfielder splitting the centerbacks, lots of stuff to make these players more effective as passers, and use the actually quite useful off ball movers they have. Guys like Yow and Miller can be very dangerous when allowed to be very aggressive from fullback positions. See: Freeman, Alexander. The Revs sucked at many things in 2025, but ball progression is the skeleton key that unlocks all of it. You progress the ball better you get into the final third more, being in the final third more means you create more. It also means your turnovers are less bad because they’re further from your goal.
Do they have a shot at the playoffs?
No.
Unless the Prince who was Promised returns. ASA legend of lore Matt Turner joined in the summer on loan from Lyon, after a fairly rough European adventure, through July 2026. Turner, on performance, may be the single best goalkeeper in the history of Major League Soccer. He is the reason the icon on the goals added wheel changes to a brick wall when you max out the bar. Turner was fairly awesome in the approximately 11 90’s he played once coming back on loan. If he is at a similar level of awesome for an entire season, that’s a free 10 to 15 goals of goal difference, which MIGHT get them there. But yeah, otherwise no.
Look. You’ll be young, you’ll probably be bad. Let the new guy try some stuff, enjoy the development stories, cheer for the Revs2 kids who come through, and have a looksie next year.
Hector + Return + Odyssey + Christopher Nolan + Benny Ball + IMAX
Forgive the SEO optimization.
Let’s go back to Nov. 3, 2024. It’s a playoff match between the Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo, and referee Armando Villarreal issues a yellow card to Héctor Herrera. Herrera disagrees with the call, spits in Villarreal’s direction, and that’s enough to get him a red card in a match that Houston would draw in stoppage time before losing 7-6 in PKs, ending their season.
Later, general manager Pat Onstad would reveal that the incident figured into the club declining Herrera’s 2025 option. At the 2025 edition of the American Soccer Insights conference, Onstad spoke and hinted at a trade soon revealed to be a cashfer with the Union for Jack McGlynn.
It all made sense: Herrera had a dynamic 2023 and dropped off some in 2024, while McGlynn was evolving into one of the league’s better central midfielders.
Look at their 2024 seasons. And then Jack McGlynn in 2025.
While it’s nearly impossible to replicate Herrera’s 2023 — when he had 17 assists, good for second in the league to Thiago Almada’s 19 — it looked as if the McGlynn-for-Herrera swap ticked that particular box.
So, then, fast forward to Jan. 14. Herrera somehow convinced Houston to issue him a prodigal son contract for 2026, with an option for the 2027 sprint season, with this gushing quote from Onstad in the press release.
“It is an honor to welcome Héctor back home to Houston. He is a respected leader both on and off the field, and a player whose influence helped change the trajectory of this Club during his first stint – guiding us to the club’s fourth trophy in 2023 and a club point record in 2024. His return reflects a shared ambition to build on past success. While his role will evolve, we know Héctor’s leadership and winning mentality will elevate the standards of our club. He returns with a deep connection to the city and a clear understanding of what it takes to bring trophies back to Houston.”
“Role will evolve” sure sounds like he’ll get less minutes, and it’s not even the move of most consequence for the 2026 Dynamo. But it’s the weirdest one, especially for a club trying to reinvent itself after missing out on the playoffs and getting bounced from the Open Cup by its Austin rivals — who did get to the finals, but who had to come from two goals down to El Paso just to get into the match with Houston.
Enter Mateusz Bogusz, returning to MLS after his journey from LAFC to Cruz Azul didn’t work out as planned. Bogusz scored 20 goals in all comps in 2024, which was a good but ultimately disappointing by LAFC standards season (Open Cup winners, League Cup finalists, Western Conference finalists). While his goals added numbers were pretty pedestrian (-0.03 in total), he was clearly a difference maker for a team coming off a 2023 season that was similarly good but ultimately disappointing (MLS Cup finalists, Concacaf Champions League finalists, and losing a Campeones Cup in PKs).
Here’s his ASA radar chart for 2024 (above), which better shows his value than the raw goals added numbers.
He’s also being heralded by the front office in a way that shows it to be hustling for tickets. From the announcement on its site: “Fans can celebrate the arrival of Bogusz with a buy one, get one free ticket offer for Houston’s home match versus his former team LAFC on Saturday, Feb. 28.” Yes, that’s right, it’s a “Bogusz BOGO discount.” (There’s also a $16 home opener ticket to celebrate the return of Herrera, who wears No. 16.)
Bogusz isn’t the only high-profile winger to be added to the squad; 30-year-old Guilherme, fresh off captaining a Santos team with Neymar on it to what the club described as a “successful relegation battle,” has joined. Suddenly, this is a team with Bogusz, Guilherme, McGlynn, Herrera, Ondřej Lingr, and Ezequiel Ponce on it, which sounds much improved from what the team was in 2025, but also making it intriguing to ponder if someone’s going to be deployed as a super-sub rather than a starter, or if Ben Olsen’s going to try to cram all this attacking talent on the field at once.
While the Dynamo were average by most metrics last season (expected goal difference, g+ difference etc.), one place they showed up as not up to snuff was with their passing. The Dynamo were in the bottom quartile by g+ passing, and struggled to progress the ball into the truly dangerous areas to generate great chances. Guilherme and Bogusz are both plus passers, whether deployed in the attacking band behind a striker or as a striker themselves, but Ben Olsen needs to find a way to get the ball into zone 14 and into those cutback zones.
The team still has question marks around it. Jimmy Maurer currently seems set to be the first-choice goalkeeper after Andrew Tarbell suffered an ACL injury and then was summarily released from the team once his contract ran out at the end of last season. Logan Erb was elevated from the homegrown ranks, but this is a team that let in 56 goals last year.
And sure, that’s only one more than Miami let in, but the champs also scored 81 goals to Houston’s 43. The -13 goal differential was seventh-worst in 2025 and a 21 goal swing to the worse from 2024.
Yet, with the additions, the Dynamo stands to be one of the most improved teams in the league come 2026, as well as one of the most entertaining watches for neutrals, as long as head coach Ben Olsen doesn’t wring all the freedom and fun out of a roster than appears capable of a lot of freedom and fun. (And, with Herrera’s addition, a potential redemption arc that could serve as a metaphor for a greater Dynamo resurgence.)