MLS is Back, Futi Style

By Kieran Doyle

MLS is back on Thursday, as we return from the World Cup break into a season finely poised to be one of the most fun we’ve had in quite some time. At the same time, our friends John Muller and Mike Imburgio have launched their new app, Futi. I’m sure they agonized over every word of their tagline, so I’ll copy it here: 

The new app that makes football make sense. Follow your favorite teams and players with real-time scores, shareable data visuals and pro analytics made simple.

 While ideologically we believe it’s called soccer, the app definitely does what it says on the tin. As such, I thought it’d be fun to dig in and see what Futi tells me to keep an eye on as we welcome MLS Saturday night’s back into our hearts. If you like what you see here (every image in here will be right out of the iOS app), head to futi.live and check it out for yourself.

West Coast Best Coast

Every year there is agonizing amongst the punditerati of the league about the balance of power between the two conferences. MLS Cup has six for the West, six for the East, across the last 12 finals. Supporters’ Shields are 8-4 East to West, but Wooden Spoons are 9-3 to the East as well. For this season, Futi’s “Team Ratings”, derived from expected goal difference, favors the West by a lot.

The Vancouver Whitecaps, thus far, show up as by far the best team in the league, with nearly triple the xG difference (+24) of the next highest team (Chicago, +9). On the points front, due to the increased difficulty of the West, Vancouver are projected for “only” a gargantuan 74 points, while East toppers Nashville are headed for 72, despite a much lower xGD and Futi Team Rating. Thus far, nobody can feel too hard done by with their current performances and their league position. Perhaps the Sounders (6th, projected 3rd) or NYCFC.

On Vancouver, what a special team. Exceptional defensively, very good in attack. Next man up mentality over and over as players get hurt, sold, moved to new positions. Don’t matter. Keep an eye on Sebastian Berhalter. He had an excellent World Cup for the USA off the back of an unparalleled 18 months for the Whitecaps, but only has five months left on his contract. If you cared about winning, you’d probably beg him to sign a new deal. Or perhaps let him ride off into the sunset off the back of a title win in Vancouver and risk him walking for free. Vancouver, I suspect, will sell him posthaste. Let’s see.

BJ Callaghan’s Courageous Coyotes

In the East, Nashville have their horns locked with an Inter Miami team that will have to navigate the back half of the season against both their Eastern Conference competitors and either the euphoric high of an Argentine World Cup win or the crippling low of Messi’s defeat in his last international showcase. 

Up the coast (I think? I have literally no idea where Nashville is and maps are for nerds), Nashville SC have a two point lead, a game in hand, and are just about level with Miami on underlying performance so far. The ‘Yotes walked into one of the league’s premier attackers in Cristian Espinoza as a free agent, and he has been the perfect foil to complete the trident of Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge. 

While Mukhtar is the Sun at the center of Nashville’s universe, and Surridge is the moon, Cristian Espinoza is the twinkle of the remaining distant stars. He’s won the second most phases on Nashville, 154, but he’s only played 11 90’s. Scaling his minutes up, he’d be in the top 10 in phases won per 90. Crucially, his balance between creating and finishing, passing and dribbling, cutting in and holding width, has made him the counterweight that’s helped this team ascend from plucky project to true Cup contender. Espinoza’s 69 player rating (a combination of on-ball generated possession value and off-ball regularized adjusted plus-mins [RAPM]) is the best of his last three seasons.

Good Stats, Bad Team

Bill Simmons has a bit about Good Stats, Bad Team guys, but in a derogatory way. Empty calories scorers putting up a Zach Lavine-ian 24, 3, and 3 for the Sacramento Kings. Soccer is different: there just aren’t really empty calories for you to load up on like that, so finding guys with good numbers on ass teams is fun. If you’re hooping on the genuinely-maybe-worst-team-of-all-time 2026 Sporting Kansas City, you have my attention. As such, I present to you some guys.

Finn Surman, 22 CB, Portland Timbers and Lucas Herrington, 18 CB, Colorado Rapids

Surman is a ball-winning/heading/clearing centerback coming off a New Zealand World Cup appearance, where he did exactly the same things. I don’t think Surman is the kind of guy you sell for $10M, like, say, Colorado’s Lucas Herrington. But I think he is the kind of guy you can keep in MLS for 8 years and get solid above average production out of him. Surman is an unspectacular passer, favoring circulation over aggressive forward passing, nor is he running a highwire high press. He is a steady Eddy who defends the penalty box well. Those guys have careers.

On the flip side, 18 year old Lucas Herrington is box office. He just had an awesome World Cup for Australia, before crashing his penalty off the crossbar against Egypt to send the Socceroos home. Who doesn’t love a comeback story? Seabiscuit, The Mighty Ducks, Robert Downey Jr., Rocky, Lucas Herrington. Herrington is a very good passer (and ball carrier), and he does lead a very aggressive highwire press with exceptional recovery pace to cover in behind. The Rapids have already bought out his 20% sell on clause for $560k, and I would bet a lot of money they sell him for more than the $7.7M+$3M they sold Moise Bombito for two years ago.

Alonso Coello 26 DM, Toronto FC

Is this a homer pick? Yes. Would Miami have been 100x better off taking all the Ayala trade money and then some and routing it to Toronto and getting the MLS Busquets? Also yes. Before the World Cup break, I posted on bsky about how Alonso posts absurd ball progression and duel-winning statlines every game while TFC lose 3-0. The game I tweeted that? 17 progressive passes (five into the penalty area), while winning 19 of 33 phases involved. Toronto FC lose 3-1. I would bet the general ass-ness of Toronto FC is really killing the RAPM component of his player rating, but the kid can hoop. In the Bill Simmons analogy, he’s like Hugo Gonzalez.

Matches to Look Forward To

We’ve obviously got half of the season ahead of us, and there are some true marquee matches down the stretch.

Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United - August 1st, Philadelphia

The Union and Five Stripes have already faced off once this season, in a barnburner 3-1 win for Atlanta that truly could’ve gone either way and ended with any score between 3-1 each way and a 5-5 draw. The Union disrupted Atlanta’s build up in the way they do; Atlanta sat off and generated quite a lot of juice in transition. Atlanta went 3-0 up and sat off to defend; Philadelphia couldn’t really turn their large amounts of xG into goals, how she goes. This rematch could very well become the Wooden Spoon decider in the back half of the season, and thus is one to keep an eye on. 

Minnesota United, San Diego FC - August 1st, Minnesota

Also on August 1st, the Loons will host the Chrome and Azul of San Diego in what has been one of the most styles-make-fights games of the last few seasons. Last season and the one prior, this match was the Battle of Helm’s Deep. A staunch back five, holding the orcs out of the keep, while they pass the ball 1300 times 40 yards from the women and children. This season? Minnesota 2, San Diego 1. Both “press and possess” team styles. Minnesota more possession phase xG. Quelle surprise!

Head Coach Cameron Knowles has truly surpassed my expectations after being promoted from assistant coach to replace Eric Ramsay. He’s done an excellent job of letting Minnesota be the protagonist more often, and nowhere was that more evident against a team as proactive as San Diego. On the other side, San Diego have disappointed off of a Western Conference Finals run in 2025. The absence of Chucky Lozano looms large. The Egyptian ownership connection to departing Liverpool star Mohamed Salah appears to not be in play, I will be watching keenly on the market moves they make. Either way, this game will go a long way to deciding who finds their way into the Western Conference playoff picture.

Futi Time

We’re very happy to have MLS back, and I’m very happy to be able to check stats like these live during matches with Futi. I hope you are too.