Since 2019, MLS has consistently had a panel of columnists, presenters, and other talent predict how the conference standings will end up at the close of the season. These prognostications are primarily to drive traffic and discussion from fans (how dare they pick us to finish 13th!) and for the most part, have not been revisited over time to see just how accurate they are. In fact, almost everyone forgets them until the end of the season where they can use them as bulletin board material.

We’ve gone back and painstakingly collected every prediction from each of the official MLSsoccer.com season previews and tabulated them in order to see just how good the predictions are.

The Initial Findings

First and foremost, the predictions are all over the place and not particularly accurate. The average margin of error on a per pick basis is +/- 3.81 spots. That’s not all that close! It’s been getting worse as well, with the best season being 2019 (average error +/- 2.63), and clearing +/- 4.0 in 2022, 2023, and 2025.

Everyone knows that MLS is hard to predict. There’s a lot of parity and the teams change a lot between seasons. For that reason, we need a model that establishes a baseline for good performance. In this case, I came up with the “literally nothing changes” model. That means that the model predicts each team will end up in the same place as the season prior. Excluding expansion teams, this model had an average margin of error of +/- 3.94 spots over the entirety of its seven seasons of picks. Thankfully, most of the predictors were able to beat this comfortably. Of the 35 people to make MLS predictions, 24 were able to beat this mark over all. Of the 11 remaining, they all beat the model when looking solely at the seasons they participated in - though for some it was fairly close.

But how did they compare against each other? For that, we need a real competition with real winners.

The Medal Table

The math is simple. Pick a club 3rd, and they finish 6th? That’s 3 points of difference. Pick a club 6th, and they finish 3rd? That’s also 3 points of difference. Over the course of the season, the total average of difference per pick is calculated and ranked. The closest predictor in a given season gets a gold medal, second closest the silver, and third closest receives bronze.

The overall champion with 3 golds and a silver across 7 seasons of prediction is none other than the Armchair Analyst himself, Matt Doyle.

Matt Doyle is the only one to have logged predictions in every single season since 2019, which is a testament to his longevity. While that longevity may have helped him accumulate points, he still has a fairly impressive overall record from season to season and remarkable consistency. He’s been the champion of the last two seasons, and if not for the craven bullshit of the league media arm, would be the favorite to take 2026 as well.

(The news broke that he would be leaving his role in MLS as this article was being written, so excuse the break here to plug his work and Soccerwise as a whole. If this article shows anything, it’s that no one in the media space has put more into communicating and understanding the league. Matt Doyle is a true Ball Knower™ and the league is lesser without him working for them.)

The whole medal table is below:

Joe Lowery of Backheeled.com takes second place, while Ben Baer takes third with two medals in just two seasons of predictions. Congratulations to all who participated!

There are other prizes to be handed out, of course;

Overall Best Average:

The overall best average is Bobby Warshaw with just 2.65 average error per pick. Despite this, he did not win a medal in the only season he was in; he has the advantage of being one and done.

Overall Best Average (3+ Seasons):

For the predictors who took part in three or more seasons, the leader for average margin of error is Charlie Davies with 3.17. Matt Doyle is close behind with 3.73. Although Davies did get the benefit of having fewer teams to choose from, by percentage of maximum error (to account for differing team numbers) he still takes the lead as well.

Individual Best Season:

Another one for Charlie Davies! He got this one all the way back in 2019. He correctly placed DC United, Philadelphia Union, and newcomers FC Cincinnati, while also getting an additional 8 teams within one place of their final table position. A phenomenal performance that has yet to be equaled.

Most Correct Picks

Matt Doyle takes the crown for most overall correct picks with 21, or 3 on average per season. He also ties for the lead for most picks correct in a season with 6 in 2025. Michele Giannone also had 6 picks on the money in 2025, a strong opening season.

Who’s Underrated? Who’s Overrated?

Of course, half the fun of the season previews is to complain about where your team is ranked relative to where you think they should be ranked. It’s not uncommon for fans to feel like their team is especially underrated, a victim of MLS Media bias against their market for not being sexy enough. (Presumably, LAFC and Miami fans feel like they are biased against for a totally different reason - envy or something similar.) With these predictions, though, we can measure bias by looking at whether or not teams are picked above or below their finishing places over the last 7 years.

San Diego is by far the most underrated team. Of course, they only have one season in the books and expansion teams tend to take a couple years to get their feet under them. It wasn’t unreasonable for the panel to pick them as low as they did, and it was a surprise to everyone that they ended up first in the Western Conference.

For teams that have a few more seasons to work with, no team is more underrated than Charlotte FC. Charlotte has developed a reputation as a tough team that plays above its talent level and based on this that reputation might be deserved. Even though every season they are counted out - the average prediction for them is just outside the playoffs - they have done better than expected more often than not. MLS writers are just biased against Charlotte, apparently. Consider yourself on notice.

Meanwhile, on the other end there are no teams who are more consistently overrated than Atlanta United and Sporting Kansas City. This is presumably because of different causes; in Atlanta’s case, they have always been a team that dominates the offseason, spends freely, and then falls flat on their face. Sporting Kansas City is MLS royalty whose attractive style made them exciting, and the time period covered here coincides with an unfortunate fall from grace. SKC also benefits from Andrew Wiebe’s hometown infatuation with the team, who he rated on average 10 spots above their finish over 3 seasons. Life advice: find somebody who loves you with the same reckless abandon that Andrew Wiebe loves SKC.

Who’s Your Team’s Biggest Hater

Enough about the love, though; what we’re really here for is hate. Who specifically* hates your team more than anybody else?

*restricted to predictors with 3 or more seasons

American Soccer Analysis is all about informing fans, and we believe that informing you exactly who to direct your hate mail towards is a worthy enterprise.

MLS Previews come out shortly (maybe? The vultures that run MLS might decide previews aren’t worth it either) and armed with the information you’ve learned here, you can take them with the exact amount of salt that they deserve.