2026 MLS Previews: NYCFC, Minnesota, Charlotte
/Our 2026 MLS Season Previews have started and today we hit NYCFC, Minnesota, and Charlotte. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.
Fast Times at Dunivant High
Todd Dunivant almost pulled a fast one on us. New York City FC’s new sporting director seemingly accomplished the impossible, especially given the lethargic nature of the front office: delivering a complete roster before the season even started! Combine that with the schadenfreude of former sporting director David Lee not having enough players to field a competitive team, and it was quite a week!
But guess what, Todd? That’s not the real City Football Group way in New York. If you think it’s as simple as identifying critical team needs, signing players, and completing deals promptly to ensure the club can compete for trophies, you didn’t do enough research for this job.
Now, instead of discussing NYCFC as a potential dark horse contender in the East, we are reminded of the familiar New York City FC: a team that seems to start every season with significant gaps to fill just to reach the playoff line, highlighted this offseason by the botched DP transfer of striker Moussa Sylla.
Where does NYCFC stand right now? I’m not sure, and it was difficult to gauge last year as well. The Pigeons finished 6th in the East with a goals added (g+) differential of 3.56, indicating that securing the 5th seed in the playoffs was consistent with the underlying numbers. However, making the playoffs was far from certain for a team that transferred Santiago Rodriguez, their only offensive designated player, just days before the 2025 opener, lost Keaton Parks to blood clots for the third time, and spent a significant portion of the season dealing with injuries along the backline.
Pascal Jansen did a stellar job in his first managerial season at New York City. His tactical emphasis on possession, counterpressing, and quick counterattacks makes him a natural fit for a CFG club. Still, it was the Dutchman’s pragmatism and flexibility that acted as the metaphorical thumb in the dike, preventing NYC’s defenses from completely collapsing.
For example, when left back Kevin O’Toole was sidelined for two months, Jansen discarded his entire preseason tactical setup and played without a left back on offense, relying on winger Hannes Wolf for width and center back Justin Haak’s ability to push into midfield while in possession. Then, during the playoffs, a now-healthy O’Toole played left wing, left back, and even as a No. 6, depending on the matchup and the shape Jansen sought. These small adjustments Jansen made on a game-by-game basis allowed NYC to overcome their roster deficits, survive until they signed designated player Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, make the playoffs, and advance to the Conference Finals.
Alonso Martinez suffered a severe ACL injury while CONCACAFed on poor turf in Curaçao during international duty in November. With the Sylla deal falling through, Jansen will need to be on his game again in 2026. Martinez has had a significant impact on NYCFC, scoring 33 goals from 31.38 xG, trailing only Lionel Messi, Denis Bouanga, Sam Surridge, and Petar Musa in goal scoring over the last two seasons.
Replacing such elite production with the typical NYC approach of doing nothing is not a viable solution. Additionally, Talles Magno’s return to the club after his loan to Corinthians complicates NYCFC’s salary cap situation. Magno’s return was likely not part of Dunivant’s 2026 plans. Although it has been confirmed that fellow Brazilian designated player Thiago Martins can be bought down this year, Magno remains in the final guaranteed year of his original DP contract, preventing him from being bought down until next season.
For 2026, this means that Magno and Fernandez Mercau will occupy the DP slots, and adding a third DP to replace Martinez would require the club to give up the $2 million in GAM they used over the past couple of seasons under the 2 DP/4 U22 roster model. While the club does need a striker, I wouldn’t be surprised if the economic crunch caused by Magno’s situation leads NYCFC to explore an open U22 spot or allocation dollars as alternatives, or even to wait until summer to utilize the DP slot, thereby only losing half the GAM.
It would be surprising if anyone other than Fernandez Mercau starts at striker this week. The Argentine designated player was Jansen’s choice for the False 9 role during the playoffs after Martinez was injured. Seventeen-year-old homegrown talent Seymour Reid is a promising prospect who has garnered some attention and should see more minutes in 2026, but he is not ready to be an everyday starter. The other option on the roster is Magno, but he appears to be a bit short of full fitness. Magno’s initial attempt as a No. 9 in 2023 was an abject failure, as he scored only four goals in 20 starts. Nonetheless, he still wants to play in that position for some reason, and he may have to at times, as no one else is available.
Starting Fernandez Mercau at No. 9 not only removes your best player from their optimal position but also creates depth issues at wing and midfield. NYCFC might as well be cited for elder abuse, having played 38-year-old Maxi Moralez for over 3,000 minutes last season. Maxi still showed he can play (or at least pass the ball) last year, but the signing of Fernandez Mercau was intended to alleviate some of that minute burden on Maxi’s soon-to-be 39-year-old legs, something he can’t do if he is starting at striker.
Hannes Wolf and Agustín Ojeda, who had an impressive late 2025, should command most of the starting wing minutes. However, Julian Fernandez’s loan to Rosario Central and Malachi Jones’s uncertain timeline for returning from a 2024 broken leg leave the rotation somewhat precarious. Don’t be surprised if homegrown talent and USYNT U17 captain Maximo Carrizo, who can play both as a winger and a No. 10, seizes the opportunity to break into the lineup.
While NYCFC has real questions to answer at striker and legitimate concerns about attacking depth, those issues feel manageable with management, given that the defensive spine of this team remains intact. Matt Freese is still in goal, and he should continue doing Matt Freese things. In front of him, nearly all of one of MLS’s best defenses returns, a group that finished seventh in goals allowed and sixth in expected goals against despite navigating injuries all season. Justin Haak is the lone major departure, but the club moved quickly to replace him with Kai Trewin, a fellow CDM/CB tweener from sister club Melbourne City. Add that to the potential of healthy Keaton Parks (please god), and you could be looking at a spine even better than last year.
If the attack does just enough, the rest of the structure should keep NYCFC competitive, but whether they have the personnel do so remains to be seen.
Today was gonna be the day, But they'll never long throw it back to you
As a disclaimer, yes, ASA does some consulting for Minnesota United. Importantly, the media arm and consulting arm here at ASA are entirely separate. If I say something in this preview, it is because I, the preview writer, think it. Not because someone involved on the project told me it. Except for the part about them trading for Messi. They totally told me that.
Minnesota were one of the most unique clubs in the history of MLS last year. By Futi’s new team style tendencies, they used a “bunker and counter” style for 74% of their minutes in 2025. In the last 10 MLS seasons, only two teams have scored more goals from set pieces. This is a team with a consistent and coherent identity. Head Coach Eric Ramsay played a back five that was tough as nails, awful to play against, and they’d spent 90 minutes every week beating the brakes off of you on every. single. restart.
Well, they did. Eric Ramsay is gone, suffering at the bottom of the Championship. Star striker Tani Oluwaseyi was sold mid season to Villareal. Reigning MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Dayne St. Clair is off to Inter Miami for max TAM and an under the table South Beach Condo. Long time Nordic talisman Robin Lod is gone to Chicago. 120 appearance man Joseph Rosales, to Austin. This is a team in flux.
In comes new head coach Cameron Knowles, a host of summer transfers designed to pre-empt some of these outgoings, formerly heralded goalkeeper Drake Callender, and El Nuevo Pibe, James Rodriguez. Like I said, flux. We’re not going to spend too much time talking about Knowles, my personal politics are that there is a 0% chance that the best person to lead your team just happened to already be in the room behind the person who moved on or was moved on, but at least he’s not a retread. It somewhat flies under the radar that because they spent so much time purely defending, their defensive metrics were actually not very good. My coach brain tells me I’d bet Knowles spends significantly more time actually making them defend more sustainably than basically everything I’m going to talk about after this.
The Pre-Transfers
Minnesota did some of their replacement work ahead of time in the summer window. In came all action midfield Nectarios Triantis, and creative playmaker Dominik Fitz for reasonably big fees. Triantis is box office. Run, kick people, shoot. All of the above. He’s the Rhodes Rodrigo de Paul, the Crete Casemiro. Fitz’ start in Minnesota has been slower, he struggled to fit in with a pretty weird group midseason, but his track record before that is pretty nice. 11 goal contributions in 12 Conference League qualifiers, and 85 goal contributions in 160 Austrian Bundesliga matches. Buzz around the league has been about Minnesota being somewhat more, willing to entertain actual soccer, if that’s the case Fitz will be a crucial part of that.
The New Guys
Drake Callender, Tomás Chancalay, Kyle Duncan, and Peter Stroud join from Charlotte, New England, and the Red Bulls respectively. Callender hasn’t played for a while in Miami and then Charlotte, but was fairly up and down previously, grading out to approximately average. Chancalay is an excellent buy low gamble, particularly given Minnesota are avoiding his DP charge. Anyone who can look like a useful attacker and chance creator in that Revolution team is going to be a good bet on upside. Stroud and Duncan aren’t pulling up any trees, but getting cheap domestic veterans who can provide league average minutes is critical to enduring the slog of an MLS campaign. Stroud I think has some legitimate upside as a deputy for and alongside Wil Trapp.
From outside the league, Kenyel Michel joins from Alajuelense after being loaned back in the summer, who knows what that brings. More interesting are two more sicko talent acquisition pathways. In comes Mamadou Dieng from Hartford Athletic of the USL Championship, and Marcus Caldeira via the SuperDraft. Dieng has ripped up USL as an offball striker, his receiving value is off the charts, second and sixth p96 in the last two seasons. Dude can move off the ball. In a team now weirdly loaded with passing talent behind the striker position, that’s a good thing. Caldeira was selected in the 2024 draft, but returned to West Virginia in 2024 and 2025. He grades out as likely an MLS caliber player based on Paul Harvey’s big board and has a strong record of shot getting and penalty area ball progression in his college play. Goal scoring is a muscle, and these guys have hit the gym.
The obvious name yet to be discussed is James Rodriguez. I am whelmed. It’s a weird signing and James is fun to watch in a way very few players who have graced the pitch in MLS have ever been, but we need to be honest with ourselves here. He has played just 40 90’s since 2023, he has hovered around 0.5 G+A p90 in that time frame in a pretty diverse set of leagues. The deal is a “get fit” move before the World Cup. This is almost certainly not the fairytale story we want it to be.
But what if it is?
But you can talk yourself into it. Star midfielder Joaquin Pereyra, James, Fitz, Chancalay all rotating in and out of the team, passing through ball after through ball to a reinvigorated Kelvin Yeboah, Bongokuhle Hlongwane, and Mamadou Dieng. This is a team built on smart recruitment, with a league leading $7.3M in GAM. New coach, somewhat more progressive identity, keep the set piece juice. It’s plausible. Maybe they’ll trade all that GAM for Messi.
Ultimately, I’ve got them in the morass of “definitely a playoff team, but not a real threat” teams in the West, but there certainly is a narrow bridge through a Loon infested pond for more.
Can the Real Slim Charlotte, Please Stand Up?
2025 was in large part a success for Charlotte FC. Predicted to be on the losing side of a battle for a home playoff spot, they rode an impressive late summer nine game winning streak to secure fourth place. They spent large periods of the season looking like quality, and had key players and inspiring newcomers who looked like they could contend with the best in MLS.
At the same time, the end of the season was bitter. After a phenomenal season at home (40 points from 17 games, tied for best in MLS) they lost not one but two home games in their opening playoff series, and were dumped out in the first round.
That kind of loss has fans understandably questioning who, in fact, was the real Charlotte last season. Was it the team that rattled off 27 points with questionable underlyings? Or was it the team that fell short against NYCFC in front of their home fans? And which team is coming back in 2026?
What’s staying the same:
Charlotte FC has mostly stayed quiet this offseason. Dean Smith enters his third season with the team, and has instilled a rugged competitiveness in the side that has kept them competitive even when the talent on the roster hasn’t stood up to the rest of the conference.
Smith plays a flexible style, with his team comfortable controlling possession when possible and switching into a lower block when against more possession dominant teams. When building up, Charlotte were patient and relatively balanced, but when given the opportunity would attack aggressively down the wings. When they lost the ball in the attack, they were tied for lowest in MLS for the high press per Futi; they were happy to drop back into their block until recovering the ball.
Although Charlotte ended up with the 11th worst xGD in the league, they were bolstered by one of the best goalkeepers in the league. Kristijan Kahlina was the winner of the 2024 Goalkeeper of the Year award and largely kept that form in 2025, erasing more than eight expected goals through his performance between the posts. An elite goalkeeper is an instant floor raiser in MLS and Charlotte is well set up with Kahlina.
Charlotte fans also have plenty of reasons to be excited about Idan Toklomati. The U22 Initiative signing had a strong season after the departure of Patrick Agyemang, scoring 13 goals on 11.7 xG. Even though he’s not much of a contributor in possession (he is below average in every G+ category besides receiving, in large part due to a lack of involvement) he’s shown a knack for getting open at the right times in the right spaces. Working with one of the better chance creators in MLS in Pep Biel he should be repeatedly getting chances to score. As the full time starter in 2026 he could be a dark horse candidate for the Golden Boot. He would need to increase his shot volume, as he finished 2025 with less than 2 shots per game, but as he develops and rounds out his game that should be reasonable. In the meantime, his shot selection is virtually ideal. Very few wasted possessions.
What’s New in 2026:
The biggest change in the Charlotte FC roster came with the departure of Adilson Malanda, who joined Middlesbrough in the English Championship. Malanda came in to Charlotte in 2022 as a raw but exceptionally talented young center back. He had his ups and downs but developed into an elite MLS center back, who anchored the defensive line and was hugely important for a team that absorbed so much pressure in their own defensive third.
To replace him, Charlotte signed free agent Henry Kessler. Kessler is a veteran whose time at St. Louis was marked by inconsistency and fitness issues, but was useful and productive in New England previously. If he can stay fit, he could provide a similar level of defensive ability to Malanda. He doesn’t have the same level of composure or vision with the ball at his feet, but Charlotte will rely on Tim Ream to handle the bulk of the ball progression from the back line. They also added one of DC United’s few MLS quality players, David Schegg, who should be able to demonstrate more of his ability on a better team.
One of Charlotte’s consistent issues has been their midfield performance. Although Ashley Westwood has been a success, he is essentially a statue at this stage of his career and most of his value comes from what he can do on the ball. They paired him with sturdy but limited players in Brandt Bronico and Djibril Diani, who can cover ground and win duels but offer little on the ball. This was a particular pain point in the playoffs, where these players had chances but failed to convert them. For this reason, they brought in former San Diego FC and USMNT midfielder Luca de la Torre.
De la Torre was on loan with San Diego in 2025, and after doing well early, he faded and lost his spot as the season went on. San Diego chose not to execute his purchase option, and instead Charlotte swooped in to sign him. Is he going to be what Charlotte needs? In many ways, he’s a middle ground from what they had before. He offers a significant upgrade in mobility over Westwood. He has more comfort on the ball and around the box than either Diani or Bronico. At the same time, he has never been able to secure a starting role for long since his first stop with Heracles Almelo. He doesn’t have the passing vision or creativity to consistently create chances, nor does he arrive in the box to get quality shots. He’s physical enough to compete in MLS, but not physical enough to dominate. At the same time, Charlotte already has a lot of what they need in Pep Biel and Ashley Westwood; they just need someone who can fill in the gaps.
The last big question heading in to 2026 is how they will sort out the wings. On the left, Wilfried Zaha was the primary contributor. On the right, it was as split between DP winger Liel Abada and U22 signing Kerwin Vargas. Abada and Vargas each filled in as the backup to Zaha on the left. Much to the surprise of Charlotte FC fans, they are running it back in 2026.
Most of the fans expected Abada to be out the door. He’s been a mild disappointment; just 13 goals and 4 assists across his two seasons with Charlotte. While he’s put in good performances so far - overall, he was at +0.05 Net G+ AA per 96 minutes played last season, +0.13 in his right winger games - those performances don’t justify the heavy roster investment when a player like Kerwin Vargas is cheaper and does not cost a designated player spot.
There’s another concern coming down the road as well. Wilfried Zaha’s loan expires in June, and Charlotte could be scrambling to find a replacement. Zaha has been a major focal part of the Charlotte team; there are few wingers as involved in the progressive phase as he is, receiving under pressure and maintaining possession until the rest of the team can join him. He was an elite progressive passer as a winger and was the most fouled player in the league. He may not be the icon he once was, but he’s still an excellent player. While all signs point to him staying in Charlotte (either through a loan extension or a purchase) he’s a mercurial player off the field and things can change in an instant. Without Zaha, Charlotte would have to change tack completely.
What will 2026 look like?
Charlotte opens and closes their season with relatively challenging runs, but have a soft middle of the schedule. That’s especially true in the final run in to the World Cup. If they can get their feet under them quickly, they could quickly outpace any predictions of where they might end up. They’re used to beating the pundits; aside from San Diego, they’re the most consistently underrated team in MLS. This season, they return a good bit of quietly underrated players like Kristijan Kahlina and Pep Biel. The foundation is there for a good run.
The concern is their attacking group. If Toklomati has a sophomore slump, or even if he can’t meaningfully increase his shot volume, they could be hurting to find goal scorers. If Zaha abandons ship in the middle of the season, or if they run into injury issues, there isn’t a lot of depth in the front line. All in all, Charlotte is not likely to be a team contending for the Shield, but if they do achieve up to their ability they can earn another home playoff series.